A diplomatic estrangement is in the offing with multiple issues threatening established and time tested political alliances in the Gulf Region, the center of which being the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its relationship with that of Pakistan. Historically Saudi and Pakistan has had always shared their views and interest geo politically. Economic Partnership, Geo Political cooperation and alliances amidst standing together with the larger Islamic World was the predominant policy of Pakistan.
With the recalling of the financial assistance provided to Pakistan amounting to US$ 3.2 Billion by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia quite prematurely signifies that matters are not what it seems to be. A school of thought states perhaps Saudi Arabia is facing a recession due to the slump in Oil demand globally and thus wanting their finances to come back to the Saudi coffers. This is perhaps true on the one part from a purely financial perspective. However from a Geo Political perspective this will not make sense at all. These are historical time tested relationships that hitherto has not been based on simply financial instruments. What then can be the simmering issues that has led to the seemingly parting of the ways ?
From a Pakistan perspective one can attribute same to many happenings that is currently taking place. One such aspect would be the growing relationship that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is progressively having with India. India today in the current day context plays the Super Power Role in the region along with a shared Indo Pacific Policy being adopted with the United States of America. A larger geo political alliance encompassing South East Asia and the Gulf is perhaps what an ideal Indo Pacific Relations and strategy would derive for its stake holders. Whether Pakistan would indeed fit into the “Glove” is a decision that Pakistan would have to make taking into consideration her geographical position and economic relations for obviously the benefit of Pakistan and its Peoples. Pakistan also rejected Saudi Crown Prince HRH Muhammad Bin – Salman’s Idea of forming an Islamic Nato amongst the Islamic nations recently. The alternative Islamic Summit that was mooted by the then Prime Minister of Malaysia the Hon. Mahathir Mohamed in alliance with the Turkish President Hon. Erdogan, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia pressured Pakistan not to attend same. Pakistan complied to this request. Saudi Arabia also intervened to prevent the Organization of Islamic Cooperation of taking the matter of Indian occupation forces in Kashmir in a clear move of solidarity with India.
The issue escalated to such an extent that Pakistan Foreign Minister, Hon. Shaah Mahmood Qureshi sounded out that non participation of Riyadh would result in Pakistan seeking a solution and amalgamation of the Islamic States outside the OIC framework. To follow suite there was the attempt by the Pakistan Army Chief of Staff Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, attempted to ease the tensions between the two nations when he flew to Riyadh for talks but was denied an audience with the Crown Prince and returned without success. This snub by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia deeply offended the Pakistani Administration and the Military Establishment which was hitherto pro Saudi. It perhaps goes without saying perhaps what is pertinent when it comes to Pakistan and her strategies geo politically is fundamentally intertwined with that of the Pakistan Army and the Political Leadership of the day. Any perspective arrived at would have to be a joint decision and not a singular decision either by the Political establishment or Military establishment. Thus perhaps is the complications within the Pakistan governance structure. To add on to this then there’s the improved relationship that Pakistan is having with Iran. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s greatest fear in this respect perhaps is the possibility of Pakistan having access to the transfer of Nuclear Technology from Iran. A fear shared by India and all its stake holders in relation to the Indo Pacific Policy and its relations.
The evolving relationship that Pakistan shares with China and her Belt and Road initiative is obviously a thorn on the side of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia viz a viz the Kingdoms shared policy perspective with that of India and USA. Thus perhaps the orientation with Israel and its new found prospects of normalization of relations viz a viz The United Arab Emirates. All this points very clearly to the historic strategic alliances that Pakistan had is drawing to a close. Pakistan is surely looking elsewhere to China, Turkey, Iran and their allies. These obviously include forces that are deeply opposed to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s Ansarullah (Houthi) movement, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iraq’s Hashd ash-Shaabi etc. All this points perhaps to a very powerful Islamic Coalition opposed to Saudi Arabia might be taking shape during the time to come which eventually will place its self with Russia and China to instill a global push back against India and the USA and its shared policies. Perhaps from the perspective of the USA administration the normalization of relations with Israel viz a viz United Arab Emirates etc Israel could serve as an alternate protector in respect of the developing position and interests. How all this will turn out and to what extent there will be a paradigm shift will have to be seen in the coming 2021 which will be the most crucial year that we are yet to see which might alter the course of time tested historic relationships and change the direction of the world order.
