By Elishya Perera
WASHINGTON DC, USA (CWBN)_Amid the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic, early voting is skyrocketing as states are reporting record-breaking numbers on pre-election voting, and even though Democrats got a big head start, however, Republicans are catching up in several key states.
With five days left until election day, it was reported that more than 80 million people have voted in the US, which accounts for about 38% of registered voters nationwide. About half of the votes already cast their votes this year comes from those key states which will play a crucial role in determining who will occupy the White House for the next four years.
Florida
Among the key states, Florida is the largest of the traditional battlegrounds, with 29 electoral votes up for grabs, and both President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden held dueling rallies in this state yesterday (Oct 29).
While Biden held an early-afternoon rally in largely democratic county of Broward in South Florida, Trump was in Tampa, which is a crucial swing region in the state. “You hold the key,” Biden said in Broward County’s Coconut Creek. “The heart and soul of this country’s at stake right in Florida. If Florida goes blue, it’s over.”
By Wednesday morning, more than 6.9 million people had cast their votes in Florida, and recent polls suggest the Republicans are catching up on the significant lead claimed by the Biden campaign a few weeks ago. On 7th October Democrats had a lead of 4 percentage points over Republicans, who stood at 45%. However, the Republicans have slightly narrowed that gap over the following weeks as Biden maintains a lead by a mere 1.2 percentage points as of Tuesday (Oct 27).
Ohio and Iowa
On the other hand, the states of Ohio and Iowa still do not provide a clear indication of which way they would lean. Even though the republicans won Ohio by a margin of 8.1 points in 2016, the 18 electoral votes from this state were claimed by the President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012. Interestingly, at the beginning of this month, both Trump and Biden appeared to be standing head to head, claiming 47% each. However, by 20th October, Trump appears to have taken the lead of 2 percentage points over the democrats who continued to stand at 47%.
Similarly, in the state of Iowa, around the third week of September, both Trump and Biden were standing head to head, claiming 47% each. This was maintained over the following weeks, and by 24th October, Biden got ahead, by a mere 0.3 percentage points.
Other key states
Meanwhile, the states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania appear to be leaning towards the democrats, as Biden has maintained a clear lead over several months, and by the last week of October, the former vice president has claimed a lead of more than 7 percentage points in Michigan and Wisconsin, while also in Pennsylvania Biden is ahead by 5.3 percentage points.
Even though the democrats appear to be ahead of the Trump campaign in the key states of North Carolina and Arizona, the Republicans have narrowed the gap every now and then, and by the last week of October, Biden is on the lead by less than 4 percentage points in Arizona and by 2.2 percentage points in North Carolina.
And even though the latest polling average puts Biden ahead of Trump nationally, national polls are not necessarily a good way to predict the results of the election, since it is the Electoral College votes which determine the final results. On the other hand, several opinion polls, particularly some swing state polls, severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. The above analysis is based on a collation of polls in each of these states, as well as national polls, while the polls are assessed for their reliability based on certain factors including their sample size.
