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How did India’s bond returns become the best in Asia?

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NEW DELHI (CU)_As the COVID-19 pandemic ravaged every part of the globe, some of the largest economies across the world were severely impacted, pushing millions of people to unemployment and forcing hundreds of thousands of businesses to shut down. Nevertheless, earlier this year, with several vaccination campaigns underway, infections appeared to decline as reports claimed that some national economies have begun to recover from the global health crisis.

However, this was not the case India. Over the past few months, the South Asian nation has seen a deadly surge in infections, accounting for nearly half of daily Coronavirus cases reported worldwide and a quarter of the global fatalities.

After what appeared to be a never-ending battle against the virus, with people dying in ambulances and car parks outside hospitals, India maybe finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. Although the country of more than 1.3 billion people continues to report a weekly average of over 200,000, infections, this is nearly half of the daily cases recorded earlier this month. This improvement the health crisis now appears to be reflecting in the country’s economy, as Indian dollar bonds rallied to become the best in Asia this month, after a lagging behind in April.

According to a Bloomberg Barclays index, so far this month, the notes have returned 0.8 per cent, which is said to be the most in the region. This is in stark contrast to one of the lowest rates of 0.4 per cent gains in April. Accordingly, India’s investment-grade dollar bonds were placed among the Goldman Sachs Group’s favoured sectors within Asian BBB debt earlier in May, as analysts cite expectations for a sharp rebound in economic activity in the third quarter, from the noteworthy under-performance against regional peers in the past few month, as reasons for this optimism.

Nevertheless, uncertainties continue to exist, as the South Asian nation is not entirely out of the woods yet. Particularly with vaccine shortages complicating the deadly health crisis, and delays in the easing of restrictions, some experts remain sceptical.

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