LONDON (CU)_With the assistance of one of the fastest COVID-19 vaccinations in the world, Britain is in the process of lifting its lockdown, as other European nations begin to tighten restrictions.
Last week, pubs and restaurants were given the green light to operate outdoors, while non-essential retailer also reopened for the public. From mid-May, restrictions will be lifted further to include sporting events, indoor hospitality and much more.
Along with the easing of restrictions, the country’s economy, which shrunk by almost 10 per cent last year, also appears to be recovering from the pandemic. Here are some of the timely and forward-looking indicators that may attest to this recovery.
The hospitality industry was one of the hardest hit by the pandemic, with bookings having shrunk by around 35 per cent in April, compared with 2019. Latest official data show that in February the output of the food and accommodation sector stood 58 per cent below its pre-pandemic level. However, recent data from online restaurant-reservation service OpenTable shows that recovery is underway with restaurants and pubs reopening for outdoor service, and further recovery is expected in the coming months as restrictions on indoor hospitality relax on 17 May.
Meanwhile, many economists say that inflation is also set to rise later this year. According to the IHS Markit/CIPS PMI survey issued earlier this month the current pressure of rising costs among British businesses is the most widespread in four years.
There are also signs of recovery in employment, with job adverts returning to pre-pandemic levels. According to official data published on Tuesday (20 April), the number of jobs on payroll last month stood more than 800,000 below pre-pandemic levels. More than 350,000 have also been out of work for a year or more, and have therefore been classed as long-term unemployed. However, there are a few promising signs which suggest a recovery in employment. For instance, official data show that the volume of job adverts posted on the Adzuna search engine has returned to its pre-pandemic levels.
Optimism among British businessmen also appear to be on the rise. According to surveys conducted by accountancy firm Deloitte, finance bosses from British firms are more upbeat about the economic outlook than at any time since the mid-2000s.
Nevertheless, the question remains as to if this optimism would translate into a rise in investments and employment. Moreover, with several countries facing third waves of the pandemic, reporting new COVID-19 variants, the virus may reach Britain’s shores once again, proving these early signals of economic recovery to be fragile.
