The New Zealand government, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, has made a major change to its national targets for biogenic methane emissions from the agricultural sector. This announcement came yesterday, October 12. It has sparked strong reactions, with environmental groups like Greenpeace criticizing the decision while the country’s main farming organization has expressed support.
The new goal requires a reduction in biogenic methane emissions—primarily from meat and dairy livestock—by 14% to 24% below 2017 levels by 2050. This is a significant easing of the earlier target, which sought a reduction of 24% to 47% during the same timeframe. However, the immediate aim to cut these emissions by 10% by 2030, based on the 2017 baseline, remains unchanged. Importantly, New Zealand is sticking to its national commitment to reach net-zero emissions for major greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrous oxide, excluding biogenic methane, by 2050.
Environmental groups have strongly criticized the change. Greenpeace called the revised target a form of “full-blown climate denial.” Amanda Larsson, a climate campaigner with Greenpeace Aotearoa, expressed her disbelief in a statement released yesterday. She suggested that the decision reflected a “climate denial” mindset, putting “corporate profits over our kids’ future.” Larsson also warned about the global impact, noting that as the world’s leading dairy exporter, New Zealand’s easing of emission standards could encourage similar actions in other major livestock-producing countries, jeopardizing global climate efforts. This concern highlights the scientific consensus, with the NGO Changing Markets Foundation citing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) data that shows methane contributes significantly to global warming, accounting for about 0.5°C of warming based on 2023 data, compared to 0.8°C for CO₂..
In sharp contrast, the agricultural community has welcomed the revised policy. Wayne Langford, president of Federated Farmers of New Zealand, called the government’s move away from the previous targets “long overdue” and a “practical step” for farmers. Langford challenged the science behind the earlier 24-47% target, arguing it “lacked credible support” and threatened New Zealand’s farming industry. He voiced frustration within the sector, stating that farmers had faced “unscientific, unaffordable, and unrealistic climate policy for too long,” creating fears of farm closures and the shift of production abroad, which would harm the national economy.
Langford defended New Zealand’s meat and dairy producers as some of the world’s “most climate-friendly.” He argued that the new, less ambitious target aligns New Zealand’s climate policy with scientific findings about what Kiwi farmers need to do to help prevent further global warming. He further claimed that imposing a methane tax would have backfired, potentially closing efficient local farms and shifting production to less efficient foreign markets, ultimately raising global emissions.
The government’s decision is based on New Zealand’s Climate Change Response Act, which requires a review of the 2050 targets every five years to ensure they remain appropriate. The administration confirmed this requirement in its statement. The current policy adopts a “split-gas” approach, distinguishing biogenic methane from CO₂ and other long-lasting greenhouse gases due to methane’s classification as a “short-lived greenhouse gas.” The next statutory review of the 2050 biogenic methane target is set for 2040. The government’s current projections are optimistic about reaching both the 2050 goals of net-zero greenhouse gases and the new 24% methane reduction. However, the government also acknowledged the “high degree of uncertainty around these projections” given the long timescale until 2050.
