Australia is set to experience a potentially wet spring, especially in its eastern half, due to record ocean heat and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that is forming. A long-range forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that the situation will likely lead to above-average rainfall and warmer night-time temperatures. Australia’s Spring Weather Outlook The Bureau of Meteorology has shared its latest long-range forecast, predicting a wetter spring for the entire eastern half of the country. This prediction follows data showing record ocean heat around Australia in July. The bureau’s spring forecast also predicts warmer-than-average night-time temperatures across almost all of Australia. The forecast suggests that daytime temperatures will likely be above average in both the north and south. However, average conditions are expected in southeastern Queensland and northern New South Wales.
Tasmania is highlighted, with predictions showing that the state could experience maximum temperatures in the top 20% on record. Global weather models indicate warmer waters are developing in the eastern part of the Indian Ocean, off Australia’s northwest coast. This situation represents a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which usually brings wetter conditions to the continent. Dr Simon Grainger, a senior climatologist at the bureau, noted they seem to be in the early stages of this negative IOD. He explained that historically, a negative IOD has favoured wetter springs, especially in inland areas of New South Wales and Victoria, east of the Great Dividing Range. Dr Grainger added that spring rainfall is between 60% and 80% more likely to be above average across most of the eastern part of the country, with September and October possibly being particularly wet months. He also mentioned that increased cloud cover, which would come with the rain, is expected to keep night-time temperatures above average almost everywhere, except in the southwestern corner of Western Australia. Record Ocean Temperatures and Their Global Context The bureau expects warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SST) in the waters surrounding Australia, particularly to the north, east, and southeast.
These higher temperatures could make storms and rain systems more severe. The warming of Australia’s oceans fits into a larger global pattern. Dr. Grainger noted that ocean temperatures worldwide have been at record highs since March 2023. He noted that the oceans absorb around 90% of the extra heat from global warming, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels. Sea surface temperatures in Australia during July were recorded at 0.56°C above average, marking it as the warmest July in the bureau’s records dating back to 1900. The bureau reported that the SSTs in the region have remained at record or near-record levels since July of the previous year. Increased Bushfire Risk Despite Wet Conditions Australia’s climate has warmed by 1.5°C since the bureau’s official temperature recording began in 1910. The spring of 2024 was the hottest on record, and since then, the country has seen a series of broken heat records. The 12-month period ending in March 2025 was 1.61°C above average, making it the hottest such period recorded.
Even with the anticipated wet conditions, fire chiefs issued a warning earlier this week about an increased risk of bushfires in specific regions of Victoria and northern and central Western Australia. Fire authorities reported a heightened fire risk in parts of Western Australia, including the Dampier Peninsula, Derby Coast, central Kimberley, Little Sandy Desert, and southeastern Pilbara. The warning also applies to southeastern agricultural areas of the Murraylands in South Australia and parts of Victoria, including southwest Gippsland. The seemingly contradictory warning about increased fire risk amid expectations of a wet spring is due to factors like vegetation growth from rainfall. This growth can later dry out and become fuel, especially in areas that do not receive the same level of rainfall.