It has been reported by the Agra Foundation that by January 2026, in result to the drought, soaring prices resource-based conflicts, the number of Kenyans facing food shortages and malnutrition could rise up to approximately 2.1 million.
Currently, mostly in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), roughly around 1.8 million people are already facing the harsh reality of food insecurity. Among the count, 179,000 are classified as being in “Emergency” conditions under the largely used Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC Phase 4).
One could be driven to ask the question on “how is the food crisis worsening?”
Stemming from a combination of many factors, such as steeply rising food prices, poor rainfall, and ongoing resource-based conflicts across vulnerable regions, the situation kept getting worse as time passed by.
Earlier in the year, however, an above-average rainfall had offered a brief improvement in crop and livestock production for some citizens. However, the respite was only short-term, as weather forecasts now show below-average short rains between October and December 2025, pointing out that the possibility for food availability could shrink further.
All the while, staple foods have increased prices, making them too expensive for many households. Along with the food sector, the cost of agricultural inputs has also risen to a great height. Fertilizers such as calcium ammonium nitrate rose by more than 14 percent month on month, with other fertilizers such as NPK and DAP also marking high prices. As a tragic result of this, the cost of farming inflates, which pressurizes smallholder farmers further, who are already in the present proceeding with their operations on a margin.
And as for the human toll, the hunger insecurity primarily affects children and mothers. According to the report, more than 740,000 children under five and approximately 109,000 pregnant or lactating mothers are in urgent need of nutritional aid. This is due to not only insufficient food consumption but also poor diets, along with limited access to healthcare and sanitation services, all of which are vital factors that increase the risk of severe malnutrition.
In most ASAL communities, hunger is no longer a temporary hardship but a constant reality. Families are now forced to let their children attend school on empty stomachs because they have to travel longer distances for food and water, which in turn compels mothers to ration meals or skip them altogether to stretch scarce food supplies.
Though there was a glimpse of hope earlier in 2025 with mid-year harvests in some regions temporarily easing out food insecurity, experts warn that this was nothing short of a short pause. With long-awaited weak rains and continued economic strains, conditions could soon deteriorate again.
Moreover, structural issues, such as weak supply chains, rising costs of farming inputs, high dependency on imports for staple food items like wheat and rice, points out that many households struggle very harshly with finding nutritious food which are basic necessities.
Addressing this crisis will require many coordinated efforts. It is crucial to strengthen supply chains and stabilize food markets to curb price inflation. At the same time, expanding social safety nets and relief efforts, particularly for the most vulnerable communities in ASAL areas, can provide immediate support. Long-term solutions should focus on promoting climate-resilient agriculture to reduce dependence on unpredictable rainfall and food imports. Additionally, investing in nutrition and health services, especially for young children and mothers, is essential to safeguard the well-being of those most at risk.
One can see how urgent, coordinated action is essential to prevent further suffering and ensure that all Kenyans can access sufficient, nutritious food.
