Assad’s Fall: Will Syria’s Minorities Pay the Price?

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As Syria transitions into a new political era following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad, the country’s religious and ethnic minorities are navigating an uncertain future. Decades of Alawite dominance under the Assad regime have ended, but the challenges of establishing stability, inclusivity, and security for all communities persist under the interim leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist group.

Alawites Grapple with Change

For over five decades, Alawites held significant political and military power under the Assad family; however, at the cost of being perceived as privileged beneficiaries of the regime’s rule. Many Alawites now struggle to distance themselves from that image, emphasizing the economic hardships and lack of wealth among the majority of their community.

People still fear retaliation against people connected to the regime, but HTS has promised to only hold those accountable for atrocities. This hasn’t done much to calm Alawites’ fears, especially since there have been reports of a few retaliatory killings that don’t seem to have anything to do with HTS.

Christians and Druze in the New Syria

In Damascus’s Christian quarters, churches remain open, restaurants serve alcohol, and festive decorations suggest a tentative return to normal life. Syria’s Christian community, one of the world’s oldest, has witnessed significant upheaval during the conflict. While many hope for stability under the new government, concerns persist about the implications of HTS’s Islamist governance.

South of Damascus, the Druze community, known for their unique faith rooted in Shia Islam, had maintained quasi-autonomy under Assad, who they believed offered protection to minorities. Their opposition to the regime grew over time, culminating in widespread protests that contributed to the broader uprising. The Druze emphasize the need for continued autonomy and equal rights in a post-Assad Syria, ready to resist extreme measures threatening their community’s status.

HTS’s Promises and Challenges

HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has sought to reassure minority communities, describing the new era as one that moves away from sectarianism in Syria, pledging to safeguard the rights and freedoms of all Syrians, including their minorities. These assurances have included dialogues with religious leaders and public commitments to accountability for past abuses without indiscriminate retaliation.

While HTS has distanced itself from its jihadist past, questions remain about how its Islamist principles will shape governance in a country long known for its ethnic and religious diversity.

International Engagement and Minority Concerns

The international response to Syria’s new leadership has been cautious. Countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia have initiated dialogue with the interim administration, signaling potential support for reconstruction efforts, with Western governments still weighing their options, given HTS’s past designation as a terrorist organization and the ongoing sanctions imposed during Assad’s rule.

As the country moves forward, the balance between addressing minority concerns and ensuring broader national unity will be critical. Minority communities, while hopeful for a more equitable future, remain vigilant, preparing to assert their rights amid the evolving political landscape.

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