Environmental (Commonwealth Union)_ China‘s latest comment on greenhouse gas emissions has ignited a fierce debate among climate scientists, world leaders, and business strategists. President Xi Jinping announced at the UN General Assembly in New York that the country will reduce its emissions to only 7% to 10% of their peak levels by 2035. For a nation that is both the world’s second-largest economy and the largest single emitter of carbon dioxide, the proposal was a modest pledge that was questioned almost immediately.
Environmental pundits quickly pointed out that the target is insufficient to control global warming within safe limits. Experts opine that a reduction of at least 30% would be needed in order to put China’s ambitions into perspective with respect to the character of the crisis. Anything short of that, they warn, will sentence the earth to a course toward irreparable harm to the climate.
Xi’s speech carried a pointed reminder that “some countries” were not living up to their responsibilities, an indirect jab at the United States. President Donald Trump, who dismissed climate concerns as a “con job” in his address just a day earlier, was conspicuously absent. While Xi invited the world to demonstrate respect for developing nations’ rights and be of one accord of purpose, his nation’s strategy was decried as not reflective of the leadership China commands on the global stage.
Kaysie Brown of the E3G think tank described the pledge as “critically short of what is needed,” warning that China would be undermining its own goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 and reputation as a clean energy leader if it didn’t do more. But not everyone felt simple dismay. Some, recalling China’s historic practice of setting modest goals only to exceed them, said this could be occurring again. “Underpromising and overdelivering is what we expect from China,” declared one climate negotiator diplomat.
Indeed, China’s history of investment in renewable energy cannot be overlooked. In 2024 alone, the country has invested a staggering $625 billion on clean energy, a whopping 31% of global spending. Solar, wind, and electric car production are transforming industries around the world, thanks mostly to Chinese ingenuity. Over the past decade, its solar panel production reduced worldwide clean costs by nearly 90%. That transformation has not only spurred its own economy at home but also fueled a worldwide move away from fossil fuels.
Bernice Lee of Chatham House asserted that China’s direction, rather than specific percentage reductions, will significantly influence global markets. “There are trade targets, and then there’s reality,” she remarked. “Reality is that China is investing at record levels, and that indicates a strong commitment to the clean economy.”
Still, there are contradictions. Coal, the very hub of China’s energy network, still works. Despite 2021 pledges to “phase down” coal, more coal-fired power stations are still being built, reflecting the political influence the industry still wields. This ambivalence—hailing clean energy while clinging to coal—raises the question of whether China can actually turn fast enough.
Paul Bledsoe, a former White House climate adviser, highlighted that China could achieve its target much sooner, by 2030 rather than 2035, if only it moved more aggressively. Shutting down old coal mines, he insisted, would not only slash carbon dioxide but also methane, a potent greenhouse gas with devastating short-term warming effects. Today, these mines emit roughly 20% of global methane from fossil fuels.
The significance of China’s pledge stretches far beyond its borders. As the world prepares for the COP30 climate summit in Brazil this November, when governments will table their updated national commitments under the Paris Agreement, China’s stance will be crucial in determining the tone. But expectations are already low. The UN climate head has acknowledged that the commitments to be introduced in Belém will fall short of what will be needed to maintain temperature rises at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
That reality comes with a sobering challenge: how to spur more resolute action when the largest emitters themselves barely manage even modest pledges. For now, China’s announcement is a visionary contradiction on clean energy spending but hesitant on binding obligations. The world will closely observe whether China continues to surpass its stated ambitions, or if this cautious approach continues to lead humanity towards the brink.
