India (Commonwealth Union)_ The recent resignation of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has triggered a seismic shift in South Asia’s geopolitical landscape, presenting India with formidable challenges and an uncertain future. As Hasina, who had long been a steadfast ally of India, exits the political stage, the implications for India’s regional security and diplomatic relations are profound. Accordingly, the current crisis in Bangladesh, marked by chaos on the streets of Dhaka, military takeover, and a looming power vacuum, as well as rising tensions with Pakistan and China, is a strong warning sign and a checkmate for its border security which underscores India’s urgent need to reassess its strategic posture and strengthen its border security.
Also read: How is India gearing up to help its special ally Bangladesh?
Ouster of Sheikh Hasina is a major setback for India
Sheikh Hasina’s resignation after a 15-year tenure represents a significant loss for India. Throughout her leadership, Hasina nurtured robust ties with India, fostering cooperation in business, energy, and defense. Under her stewardship, Bangladesh emerged as India’s largest trade partner in South Asia, with bilateral trade nearing $16 billion. Hasina’s regime was crucial for regional stability, counterbalancing the influence of China and Pakistan, which have been increasing their foothold in South Asia.
Unfortunately, the abrupt departure of Hasina has left a power vacuum that could potentially be filled by a government less supportive to Indian interests. Accordingly, analysts warn that this shift could encourage China and Pakistan, both of which view India with considerable hostility. Additionally, the rise of anti-Indian elements and the possible reinstatement of Khaleda Zia, a leader with a history of strained relations with India, further exacerbate concerns about the future of India-Bangladesh relations.
Also read: Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina resigns, nation faces tumultuous crossroads
Threat for India’s security and diplomacy
The fallout from Hasina’s resignation raises critical questions about India’s border security and regional influence. With Bangladesh now emerging as India’s potential enemy, India now faces a precarious situation on its eastern flank. This development comes at a time when India is already contending with a hostile western neighbor in Pakistan and an increasingly aggressive China to the north.
In the broader context, India’s regional influence appears to be waning. Nepal, traditionally a close ally, has aligned more closely with Beijing under its current leadership. The Maldives, too, has seen a shift towards pro-China leadership. Sri Lanka remains economically entangled with China, while Bangladesh’s instability only compounds India’s regional challenges. Additionally, the Hindu constituency in Bangladesh, which comprises about 8% of the population, faces increasing risks, with past instances of violence during political unrest raising concerns about their safety in the current environment.
The power vacuum and its consequences
The current turmoil in Bangladesh has led to significant upheaval, with the army chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, taking charge and promising to establish an interim government. However, the stability of this interim setup remains uncertain. Additionally, the release of Khaleda Zia and the potential return of figures like Tarique Rehman and Muhammad Yunus also add to the unpredictability of the situation. The Indian government is watching closely, hoping that the interim administration will mitigate anti-India sentiments, but the potential for prolonged instability looms large.
In the absence of Hasina, who had been a barricade against rising Islamist extremism, there is a real risk that Bangladesh could become a haven for radical elements. The previous government’s efforts to suppress such elements were instrumental in maintaining regional stability. The prospect of a government that might be less cooperative or even antagonistic towards India is alarming, particularly given the historical context of Bangladesh’s support for insurgent groups in India’s northeastern states.
Economic and strategic concerns
The political upheaval in Bangladesh is a terrible news for India which also threatens India’s significant economic investments in the country. India has invested billions in connectivity and infrastructure projects, which could be jeopardized if the new government adopts a more adversarial stance. Additionally, Hasina’s departure could lead to a realignment of Bangladesh’s foreign policy priorities, potentially distancing the country from India and increasing its engagement with China and Pakistan.
Furthermore, the reported attacks on Hindu places of worship in Bangladesh signal a troubling trend that could affect bilateral relations. The Hindu minority, which has been targeted in past conflicts, may face increased vulnerability in the wake of Hasina’s exit. This situation not only threatens regional stability but also impacts India’s internal security, given the close ties between the two countries.
Looking ahead: strengthening regional alliances
In response to these challenges, India must navigate a complex regional landscape marked by rising antagonism and instability. Accordingly, strengthening strategic partnerships with Southeast Asian nations, Indo-Pacific powers, and the Middle East will be crucial in counterbalancing the influence of hostile neighbors. Furthermore, enhancing trade and diplomatic relations with these regions can also help mitigate the impact of Bangladesh’s potential drift towards a more adversarial stance.
Overall, the ouster of Sheikh Hasina has plunged Bangladesh into uncertainty, with significant implications for India. As India grapples with the potential emergence of a new, less friendly regime in Dhaka, the nation must urgently reassess its strategic priorities and bolster its regional alliances. Furthermore, the evolving dynamics in South Asia underscore the need for a proactive and adaptive foreign policy to safeguard India’s interests and maintain regional stability amidst a turbulent geopolitical climate.
