A cloud of uncertainty hangs over Australia’s defense strategy, particularly regarding the future of the AUKUS security pact. This concern arises from Donald Trump‘s recent re-election as U.S. President and his administration’s “America First” agenda, which has prompted a review of this important agreement. The AUKUS pact is a trilateral deal between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. It promises to provide Australia with advanced nuclear submarine technology in exchange for increased cooperation in monitoring China in the Asia-Pacific region. The Deal Under Scrutiny The White House announced on Thursday that it plans to ensure the AUKUS pact aligns with the president’s “America First agenda.”
The U.S. holds the essential technology, while the U.K. already operates its own nuclear-powered submarines. The submarines designed and built for Australia are expected to be an improvement. The acquisition would significantly boost Australia’s military capabilities, allowing its new submarine fleet to operate further and faster than its current diesel-engine vessels and enabling long-range strikes for the first time. Providing what has been called the “crown jewel” of its defense technology is a significant commitment for the U.S., as is the U.K.’s contribution of engine blueprints. With President Trump’s increasingly isolationist approach, some analysts argue that the U.S. now sees fewer benefits from the pact. Elbridge Colby, Under Secretary of Defense Policy and a previous critic of AUKUS, is leading the White House review.
A Pentagon official reportedly told the BBC that the review aims to ensure the agreement meets “common sense, America First criteria.” Two major criteria mentioned are the expectation for allies to “step up fully to do their part for collective defense” and the need to prioritize the U.S. arms industry’s capacity to meet its own requirements first. The Trump administration has consistently expressed dissatisfaction with allies, including Australia, regarding their defense spending and has noted America’s challenges in producing enough nuclear-powered submarines for its forces. Colby had even questioned why the U.S. would give away this “crown jewel asset” when it was most needed. Canberra’s Measured Response Amidst Growing Unease The Australian government has stayed calm, stating that it is normal for a new administration to review its predecessor’s decisions. The new U.K. Labour government also looked over AUKUS last year. Defence Minister Richard Marles expressed strong confidence in the pact’s progress during an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). However, the review has understandably caused initial nerves in Canberra.
Euan Graham from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute told the BBC that while the review itself is not concerning, the ongoing anxiety surrounding AUKUS since its beginning, along with other factors, is worrisome. There is a growing concern in Australia about the reliability of the United States. Mr. Roggeveen remarked that President Trump’s actions in his early term do not inspire confidence in America’s commitment to its allies. He drew a parallel between Trump’s view of the Ukraine conflict as mainly Europe’s problem and suggested a similar view could apply to Asia, given the vast ocean separating it from America. Washington’s decision to impose major tariffs on Australian goods earlier this year further heightened these worries, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese calling it “clearly not the act of a friend.” Albanese has kept quiet on the AUKUS review, reportedly hoping for a face-to-face meeting with Trump at the G7 summit in Canada next week. Divergent Views and Future Possibilities Former Australian prime ministers have expressed differing opinions.
Paul Keating, a strong advocate for closer ties with China, controversially suggested this moment “might very well be the moment Washington saves Australia from itself,” labeling AUKUS as a rushed agreement. The perceived indecision from the U.S. on AUKUS fuels ongoing criticism in some circles that Australia is too reliant on its ally. The Greens, Australia’s third-largest political party, have called for an independent defense and foreign policy, arguing that Australia should not have to “bend our will and shovel wealth to an increasingly erratic and reckless Trump USA.” Potential Outcomes and Australian Resilience There is a significant chance the U.S. will reaffirm its commitment to the pact. Australia’s purchase of up to five nuclear-powered submarines represents a major investment that would also aid American jobs. Additionally, the U.S. has nearly a decade to address its supply chain issues. Mr. Graham noted that the U.S. also benefits from AUKUS, as all three nations enhance their defense technology and ecosystem through improved interoperability. Still, the anxiety stirred by the review will likely be hard to completely remove and has intensified existing disagreements over AUKUS within Australia.
However, it is possible that Trump might seek to change the deal. Mr. Roggeveen speculated that Australia may not receive the interim Virginia-class boats, which could leave Australia relying on its ageing fleet for another two decades while new models are designed and built. If the U.S. were to withdraw from the AUKUS alliance entirely, few experts would see the move as an imminent crisis. The general view is that countering China and maintaining influence in the Pacific remains vital for the U.S. Yet, Mr Roggeveen pointed out that the U.S. has not invested enough in its presence in Asia, despite China’s significant military growth. He emphasised Australia’s “geographically blessed” position, stating that with “a reasonable defense budget and a good strategy,” it could effectively deter China even without nuclear submarines. He challenged the idea of an immediate threat, noting the considerable distance between Beijing and Sydney, and asserting that while there may be a “mental block” and “emotional block” in Australia that fuel a fear of abandonment, the country can defend itself if necessary.
