(Commonwealth_India) The latest round of trade tensions between the United States and China, this time over rare earth minerals, is reshaping global alliances in unexpected ways. And at the center of it all, quietly but confidently, stands India.
As China tightens its control over rare earth exports, Washington is growing uneasy. These minerals, essential for everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to fighter jets, are the backbone of modern technology. With Beijing controlling about 80% of the global supply, the US is realizing how fragile its dependence has become. Now, it’s looking for reliable partners to rebuild supply chains, and India, with its growing industrial base and steady diplomacy, appears to be the perfect fit.
“China’s tightening grip on rare-earth exports and the escalating US-China trade war are forcing Washington to rethink its alliances,” said Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). “India is emerging as a trusted alternative.”
Just days ago, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent named India among Washington’s key allies in what he described as a “China versus the world” confrontation. The message was clear: the US wants to strengthen economic ties with partners who can help it reduce its overreliance on Beijing.
According to GTRI, the changing global mood could fast-track a long-discussed US-India trade deal. Washington may offer India improved tariff access, at a rate somewhere between 16% and 18%, a better rate than the European Union and Japan currently enjoy. For India, that would be a giant win. At present, Indian goods face tariffs of around 50% in the US, among the highest in the world, second only to China and Brazil.
Those steep tariffs date back to the Trump administration, when the former president accused India of “funding the Ukraine war” through its continued purchase of Russian oil. Ironically, China also buys large volumes of Russian crude, but Trump, at the time, was more lenient toward Beijing as trade negotiations were still underway. That changed dramatically when China restricted rare earth exports again this year, angering Trump and prompting talk of new US tariffs that could exceed 100%.
With India, however, Trump’s frustrations have sometimes gone beyond trade. Despite publicly calling Prime Minister Narendra Modi a “great personal friend,” Trump was reportedly annoyed when Modi declined to back his claim that he had forced a ceasefire with Pakistan during India’s Operation Sindoor. However, Modi’s government remained steadfast. Instead, it kept its responses measured, quietly continuing diplomatic engagement without adding fuel to the fire.
Now, that calm approach might be paying off. “A deal may move quickly because Washington wants it,” GTRI said in its latest assessment. An Indian delegation is already in the US for the sixth round of trade talks, discussions that had been on hold since August due to renewed tariff tensions.
Still, Indian officials are being cautious. GTRI warned that India must not compromise on key interests such as agriculture, digital trade, e-commerce, and intellectual property. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has repeatedly stated that India will not accept any conditions that could restrict its freedom to engage with other countries, especially those aimed at countering China.
For Washington, the bigger picture goes beyond just trade numbers. The US wants to secure the supply chains that power its industries and national defense, and it can’t do that while depending on a single country for critical materials. India, with its stable political environment, growing manufacturing capacity, and shared democratic values, is an obvious and increasingly important partner.
Small but telling gestures are beginning to reveal the warmth between the two countries. During a recent visit to New Delhi, US Ambassador-designate Sergio Gor met key Indian officials and presented Prime Minister Modi with a framed photograph signed by Donald Trump. The message scrawled across it read, “Mr. Prime Minister, you are great.” While symbolic, the moment reflected a thaw in tone and perhaps a recognition that Washington needs New Delhi as much as New Delhi needs Washington.
Behind the handshakes, however, serious discussions are underway. “Our team in the US is exploring a win-win solution,” an Indian official told ANI. “We’ve seen strong export growth to the US, and that trend may continue. Around 45% of our exports are already outside the tariff bracket.”
This moment encapsulates the evolving trends of global trade in many ways. What began as a confrontation between Washington and Beijing is slowly turning into an opportunity for India—a chance to position itself as a central player in new, diversified supply networks that are safer from geopolitical shocks.
If these talks succeed, it won’t just be a trade agreement. It will be a statement that India and the United States, two of the world’s biggest democracies, can come together not just in politics or defense, but in building the resilient, fair, and balanced economic order the world now needs.
And in a twist of fate, the same rare earth minerals that triggered fresh conflict between the US and China may end up forging a stronger bond between India and America, a partnership built not on rivalry, but on trust and shared ambition for the future.
