(Commonwealth_India) What started as a promising chapter in India-US relations has, for now, lost its rhythm. Earlier this year, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Washington, there was a sense of optimism in the air, a belief that the two nations were finally inching toward a long-awaited trade deal. But that quiet progress has come to a standstill. The US trade delegation won’t be coming to India later this month, at least not yet. There’s no formal explanation, no rescheduling, just a temporary stop. And behind that pause is a complex tangle of politics, priorities, and people.
At the centre of this breakdown is something far more personal than policy: food, farms, and livelihoods. The core of the disagreement is agriculture, specifically India’s reluctance to expand its markets to include American farm and dairy products. And to understand why India won’t budge, you have to understand who it’s protecting.
Farmers in India are more than just a sector; they are integral to the country’s identity. They’re not faceless producers behind supply chains; they are fathers and mothers, uncles and aunties, people who still greet the sun before it rises, whose hands are weathered from years of working the land, and whose survival is always tied to forces beyond their control, like the rain, the soil, or, now, global trade decisions made oceans away.
The United States, led by President Donald Trump, is pushing hard for access to this market. Trump’s administration has made it clear: America wants Indian doors opened wide for its agricultural exports. And in return, it has slammed Indian goods with a harsh tariff, 50%—the highest it’s levied on any country in the world. Half of that tariff is already in place. The rest? It’s dangling, a warning linked directly to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil.
Trump’s recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska ended without a ceasefire in Ukraine, meaning the pressure on India could get worse. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was blunt when speaking to Bloomberg. If Russia doesn’t cooperate, he warned, India could be hit with more tariffs:“We already put secondary tariffs on the Indians for buying Russian oil… If things don’t go well, sanctions or secondary tariffs could go up.”
Back home, Prime Minister Modi isn’t backing down. His message, especially around Independence Day, has been clear and personal. Speaking to the nation from the Red Fort, he didn’t just defend a policy; he stood up for farmers. He spoke of their well-being and of their dignity and made it known that protecting them is non-negotiable. Days earlier, he said he would not compromise “even if it meant paying a heavy personal price.” Those aren’t the words of a leader navigating abstract trade terms. They’re the words of someone who sees the stakes in human terms.
The issue extends beyond mere imports and exports. It’s about the fear in a farmer’s eyes when they hear the word “liberalisation,” the anxiety of a cattle keeper wondering what happens if foreign dairy floods their local market, or the quiet frustration of an official in Delhi trying to balance economic ambition with social responsibility.
Trade deals often are reduced to numbers, billions of dollars, percentages, and deficits. But in this case, the numbers blur behind the faces of real people who’ve worked the land for generations and don’t ask for much more than a fair chance to survive. For them, a deal with too many concessions could mean lower prices for their crops, more competition they can’t fight, and the end of a fragile stability they’ve built over decades.
For now, the talks have stalled. The silence from Washington is deafening. There’s no clear timeline for when, or even if, negotiations will resume. Both sides are looking at each other and the world. The road ahead will depend not only on economic decisions but also on how the global chessboard moves around Russia, Ukraine, and beyond.
In the middle of all this, it’s easy to forget the human cost. But in dusty village fields, in quiet fishing harbours, in crowded dairy markets, and in the anxious eyes of traders and farmers, the stakes are being felt every single day. Whether this deal goes forward or falls apart, the impact won’t just be measured in GDP; it’ll be written into the everyday lives of people who had no seat at the negotiating table but who have everything to lose.
