The impending political reckoning, warns Detlef van Vuuren, a climate scientist at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, suggests that global warming could hit the critical threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within a decade, potentially even sooner. Natural variations, like the current El Niño warming in the tropical Pacific, can exert short-term influence on temperatures, complicating assessments. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) relies on 10- and 20-year rolling averages, introducing a lag between official estimates and actual yearly averages.
The urgency is evident. Projections based on current carbon emissions suggest a rise of 2.4–2.6°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, as per the Paris Agreement commitments. The repercussions of delaying action are clear: achieving the Paris goals becomes increasingly challenging the longer we wait. Global leaders pledged to prevent climate interference in 1992, but the current trajectory could breach the 1.5°C mark in just over five years. To maintain a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C, annual carbon emissions would need an 8% reduction until 2034 – a rate not seen since the pandemic-induced 7% drop in 2020.
In the face of this reality, researchers propose a controversial solution: temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C mark and then reversing the trend in the latter half of the century by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This scenario, favored by computer models for its cost-effectiveness, underlines the necessity of negative emissions. While methods like forest planting and industrial solutions exist, none have been tested at a climate-relevant scale, with potential side effects poorly understood. Sally Benson from Stanford University emphasizes the importance of developing backstop technologies for carbon removal, acknowledging the financial challenges associated with these interventions.
The looming challenge prompts a plea to prioritize emission reduction. Despite a rebound in fossil fuel emissions after a COVID-19 dip, there’s optimism in the rise of renewable energy, marking an imminent shift away from fossil fuels. The International Energy Agency projects a peak in annual emissions from fossil fuels in the next few years, with a decline to 35 billion tonnes by 2030. The transition, though inevitable, requires a global effort, acknowledging shifting responsibilities. While industrialized nations bear historical responsibility for emissions, emerging economies like China and India now contribute significantly, necessitating a collaborative approach to address the climate crisis.
