India (Commonwealth Union)_ Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political trajectory has always been marked by triumphs and challenges. Accordingly, in the aftermath of the 2024 general election, it was clear that his once-robust mandate had been significantly diminished. Amidst a backdrop of economic woes, societal tensions, and political miscalculations, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faced setbacks that failed to secure a sweeping victory. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP failed to clinch a majority due to economic woes like unemployment, rising inflation, and declining incomes impacting voter sentiment. However, Modi’s government managed to retain power with his NDA alliance, securing 293 seats, with the BJP alone winning 240. Conversely, the INDIA alliance led by Congress secured more than 230 seats, giving a tough fight to the BJP alliance. Here, we delve into the multifaceted factors that contributed to Modi’s reduced majority in the 2024 election results.
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Hate speech during campaigns
During the campaign, Modi and his Hindu nationalist party faced reproach for his remarks concerning India’s Muslim minority. Critics and rights groups condemned Modi for escalating rhetoric against Muslims, aiming to mobilize the Hindu majority. His speeches labeling Muslims as “infiltrators,” accusing them of higher birth rates, and accusing the Congress of favoring Muslims heightened tensions and eventually directed the Muslim votes towards opposition.
Failed Southern votes
The BJP’s electoral strategy hinged on expanding its footprint in wealthier and well-educated southern states, yet this ambition faltered as the party failed to make significant inroads. Despite concerted campaigning efforts, the BJP’s electoral performance in states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala fell short of expectations. The inability to secure support in these crucial regions underscored the challenges of translating electoral ambitions into tangible gains, highlighting regional disparities in political preferences.
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Rising Unemployment rate
Economic concerns, particularly job scarcity and rising inflation, emerged as pivotal issues influencing voter sentiment. Unemployment rates surged, with youth bearing the brunt of joblessness. Accordingly, unemployment surged to 8.1% in April, exacerbating concerns, particularly among the youth, who accounted for a significant portion of the jobless populace. Reports indicated a stark rise in unemployment figures, coupled with falling incomes, exacerbating disappointment with the ruling party’s performance on job creation. The electorate, grappling with economic uncertainty, expressed dissatisfaction with the government’s inability to address these pressing concerns effectively.
Rising Inflation
The specter of inflation loomed large over the electorate, with a significant portion of voters expressing concerns about rising prices. This heightened economic strain further eroded confidence in the ruling party’s ability to tackle economic challenges. As the cost of living escalated, voters voiced their discontent at the ballot box, signaling a desire for substantive policy responses to alleviate financial burdens.
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Muslim votes turning to opposition
Muslim voters in India, comprising a significant minority of over 200 million, have historically faced challenges, including targeted attacks, under Prime Minister Modi’s tenure since 2014. Policies such as preventing Muslim migrants from gaining citizenship, revoking semi-autonomy in the only Muslim-majority region, and building a Hindu temple on the site of a razed mosque have underscored Modi’s alignment with Hindu-majority interests. The BJP, under Modi’s leadership, has introduced or supported laws viewed as discriminatory by Muslim leaders, including restrictions on interfaith marriage and advocating for a common legal code affecting religious practices.
Despite historical underrepresentation in parliament, Muslim voters in the 2024 election showed a significant consolidation and disapproval of religiously charged issues or Muslim candidates, opting instead to prioritize the preservation of India’s democratic values over religious affiliations. Additionally, Modi’s campaign rhetoric, characterized by divisive language targeting India’s Muslim minority, drew widespread condemnation. Critics accused him of exploiting communal fault lines to garner Hindu voters, leading to heightened polarization. Hence, Muslim voters, disappointed by discriminatory policies and inflammatory rhetoric, rallied behind opposition parties, signaling a decisive shift in electoral dynamics.
Enactment of Citizenship Amendment Act, excluding muslims
The exclusionary Citizenship Amendment Act heightened anxieties among India’s Muslim population. This legislation, which fast-tracks naturalization for certain religious groups while excluding Muslims, symbolized the government’s perceived Hindu-centric agenda, eliciting criticism and fears of marginalization among the Muslim community, which turned them towards opposition.
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The great Farmers protest
Agricultural discontentment emerged as a potent political force, catalyzed by widespread farmer protests demanding better prices and support. The BJP’s strained relationship with agrarian communities, traditionally a key constituency, contributed to electoral setbacks in states like Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan. The government’s perceived neglect of farmer concerns resonated strongly, prompting voters to punish the ruling party at the polls.
Uttar pradesh votes – Road to power fails
In the recent Uttar Pradesh elections, Modi’s party faced a setback as economic concerns surpassed religious loyalties. This marks the first time in 15 years that the party has failed to secure the most seats in the state. Uttar Pradesh, a significant political battleground with a population of 241 million, holds immense importance in national elections due to its large population and substantial parliamentary seat count. Despite efforts, the party faltered, particularly in key areas like Faizabad, home to Ayodhya where the Ram Mandir was built, and its overall seat count decreased from 62 to 33 compared to the last elections. The largest state failed to support the BJP for the first time and turned towards the opposition.
Strong Hindutva policies affects minorities
Experts attribute Modi’s strong Hindutva policiesto his upbringing in the RSS, a Hindu nationalist organization. Over the past decade, he led India into global prominence and economic growth, leveraging Hindu nationalism to garner support from the country’s vast Hindu majority. By making Hindu nationalism mainstream, he secured a significant vote bank. However, this approach has marginalized minority groups, raising concerns about their rights and inclusion.
Ambitious slogans of overconfidence
The BJP’s overconfident projections of electoral dominance, epitomized by ambitious electoral slogans like “Abki baar, 400 Paar,” cultivated a sense of laxity among supporters. The party’s lofty promise of exceeding 400 seats fostered a sense of assurance among voters, potentially dampening turnout. However, the discrepancy between pre-poll expectations and electoral outcomes underscored the dangers of overconfidence in political prediction. Additionally, overreliance on optimistic forecasts fostered a disconnect between electoral realities and party narratives, contributing to disillusionment among voters.
Low cast votes turn to opposition
The election witnessed a realignment of caste-based political allegiances, with lower-caste Hindu voters expressing concerns about the BJP’s governance agenda. Accordingly, fears of caste-based discrimination and the erosion of affirmative action programs fueled support for opposition parties, particularly among Dalit communities. Fears of losing access to education and government jobs under a BJP-led government prompted a significant electoral rebellion, especially in Uttar Pradesh. Additionally, Modi’s emphasis on religious identity failed to overshadow deep-seated caste affiliations, highlighting the enduring importance of caste dynamics in Indian politics.
Fears of constitutional change
Opposition leaders cautioned the public that if the Hindu-nationalist BJP and its allies achieved the anticipated landslide victory of 400 parliamentary seats, as Modi had suggested, there could be constitutional amendments. These changes might entail the elimination of guaranteed affirmative action for Dalits and minorities and the alteration of India’s secular identity.
Votes of impoverished community fail
The impoverished community’s votes did not translate into success for Modi. The opposition leaders criticized Modi for his inability to generate employment opportunities and accused him of aligning with prominent Indian billionaires Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani instead of supporting small businesses and everyday workers.
Heatwaves hinder elections
Analysts attribute the lower voter turnout during the recent elections in northern India to the scorching heatwave, with temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit). As such, the extreme heat likely deterred many voters from participating in the democratic process. Despite efforts by the Election Commission to monitor heatwave conditions and ensure voter safety, instances of candidates and election officials fainting were reported. The oppressive heat posed a significant obstacle to democracy, particularly for those who are economically disadvantaged and unable to endure the conditions while waiting in line to cast their votes.
Low voter turnout compared to previous polls
Despite concerted efforts by the Election Commission and political parties to boost voter turnout amidst increased polarization, this year witnessed a drop in voter participation compared to previous elections. In 2019, the voter turnout stood at 67.4%, whereas this year it dropped to 65.79%, marking a decrease of 2.6%. Several factors contributed to this decline, including low-quality political discourse, election fatigue from the prolonged 44-day voting period, a severe heatwave, political instability caused by politicians switching parties, dwindling trust in the electoral process, disillusionment with candidate profiles, and concerns regarding criminal influence in politics.
Modi’s silence in Manipur violence
Modi’s silence on the violence in Manipur drew heightened criticism, particularly as it erupted following a court order regarding economic benefits and quotas for the Meitei population. The conflict has led to significant violence, especially targeting women, portraying a security and political failure for Modi’s administration. Despite the escalation, Modi remained publicly silent for months, even when horrifying videos of women being assaulted surfaced, sparking national outrage. This silence has prompted opposition parties to seek a no-confidence vote against Modi’s government, highlighting the urgency for him to address concerns about the ethnic clashes. The impact of such violence on Modi’s electoral prospects hinges on various factors, including the government’s response, public perception, media coverage, and the broader political landscape. Notably, the brutal violence against women shook public sentiment, impacting Modi’s vast voter base.
Media over-exaggerated Modi’s popularity
Media narratives portraying Modi’s popularity in overly favorable terms contributed to misconceptions about his electoral invincibility. Exaggerated depictions of Modi’s achievements and public support masked the underlying socioeconomic challenges, fostering a twisted perception of political realities. The failure to notice the discrepancy between media portrayals and ground-level realities was one of the major factors that led to the failure. This underscores the importance of critical media literacy in navigating complex political landscapes.
Failed pre-poll and exit-poll survey results
Pre-election and exit polls initially projected a landslide victory for the BJP and its allies, suggesting they would secure over 350 seats in Parliament. However, the final results revealed a significant gap, with the coalition only reaching 293 seats. Despite earlier predictions of Prime Minister Modi securing a third term, the actual outcome differed greatly from the optimistic forecasts. Pre-poll surveys also anticipated a resounding victory for Modi’s BJP in key states such as Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and others, but the reality proved otherwise. These discrepancies highlight the unpredictability of electoral outcomes and the limitations of survey methodologies for accurately gauging public sentiment. These surveys promoted high expectations of the BJP among the public, which finally failed.
Aggressive Campaigns
Modi consistently cautioned impoverished Hindu voters that the Congress party intended to redistribute wealth by seizing their buffaloes and wedding jewelry and allocating them to Muslims. He asserted that, rather than backing him, India’s top two billionaires were furnishing corrupt opposition candidates with vans brimming with illicit funds. Modi’s verbal attacks towards the opposition aimed at bringing down their reputation among the public. Additionally, his aggressive speeches during the campaigns targeting minorities also contributed to his lower vote counts.
Increasing wealth inequality
Modi’s failure to address widening wealth inequality and the concerns of marginalized communities further eroded his support base. Researchers highlighted that wealth inequality under Modi’s tenure had reached historic levels, surpassing those witnessed during British colonial rule.
Ram mandir inauguration – A religious victory
The construction of a majestic Hindu temple in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh, in January, hailed as a significant achievement by Modi and the BJP, emerged as the government’s most popular endeavor, as per the survey results. Despite Modi’s highly publicized presence at the temple’s inauguration in January, situated on a site historically fraught with Hindu-Muslim tensions, this did not evidently translate into electoral support. Conversely, voters among Uttar Pradesh’s 38 million Muslims turned out in large numbers, strategically supporting leading opposition parties. Notably, despite Modi inaugurating a contentious Hindu temple at the site of a demolished mosque, the BJP candidate faced defeat in the Ayodhya constituency.
Unexpected resurgence of the strong opposition
The resurgence of a formidable opposition, which won an unexpected 230 seats led by the Congress party, posed a significant challenge to Modi’s dominance. Despite internal strife, the opposition capitalized on issues like unemployment, rising prices, Hindutva policies, and discrimination against Muslims, criticizing Modi’s perceived allegiance to wealthy businessmen.
Katchatheevu row sparked political tension
The Katchatheevu dispute emerged as a failed strategy by Modi to secure votes in South India, particularly in Tamil Nadu. The BJP criticized the Congress government for giving the island to Sri Lanka, stirring controversy. Opposition leaders accused Modi’s party of exploiting the sensitive Katchatheevu issue, significant in Tamil Nadu, for electoral gain in the Lok Sabha elections. According to the Congress party, the BJP’s revival of this decades-old issue aimed to court the fishing community’s votes in Tamil Nadu. However, this rekindling of a relatively insignificant matter provoked widespread backlash against the BJP.
Hijab issue disturbed Muslim women
The hijab issue came to the forefront in February 2022 when a government pre-university college in Udupi prohibited Muslim girls wearing hijabs inside classrooms, a rule that was subsequently adopted by several universities. Subsequently, the BJP-led state government issued a directive to extend this ban to campuses, citing concerns about clothing that could disrupt equality, integrity, and public order. In the ensuing weeks, the dispute escalated, spreading to numerous schools and colleges across the state. Many students, predominantly girls, protested against the ban on wearing hijabs in classrooms, while others staged counter-protests by donning saffron scarves. This action by the BJP government sparked widespread controversy across the country.
Conclusion
Ultimately, Modi’s electoral setback underscores a complex interplay of economic, social, and political factors. His inability to navigate these challenges effectively, coupled with a resurgent opposition and disillusionment among key voter demographics, led to a notable erosion of support, signaling a shift in India’s political landscape. While India’s 2024 general election marked a watershed moment in the country’s political trajectory, Narendra Modi’s BJP experienced a significant downfall in electoral support. As the nation confronts the consequences of these electoral outcomes, Prime Minister Modi embarks on his third term amidst formidable challenges, demanding careful attention from the incumbent government in shaping India’s democratic fabric and driving the nation towards a prosperous future.
