Scientists are issuing a warning after the global average temperature briefly exceeded the 2-degree Celsius warming limit for the first time. This critical threshold, long emphasized by scientists as having potentially catastrophic and irreversible consequences for the planet and its ecosystems, was surpassed temporarily, signaling a planet steadily growing hotter.
Preliminary data shared by Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, revealed that last Friday, the global average temperature surpassed 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Although this breach is not indicative of a permanent shift, it underscores the ongoing trend of escalating temperatures and the looming challenge of reversing climate crisis impacts.
Samantha Burgess noted that this was the first day when global temperatures exceeded 2°C above pre-industrial levels, registering at 2.06°C. Despite the global average temperature for that Friday being 1.17 degrees above 1991-2020 levels, making it the warmest November 17 on record, the comparison to pre-industrial times highlights a 2.06-degree increase.
This breach of the 2-degree limit occurred just before the UN COP28 climate conference in Dubai, where nations will assess their progress towards the Paris Climate Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, with an ambition to restrict it to 1.5 degrees. While Burgess clarified that a single day above 2 degrees does not breach the Paris Agreement, it signals an approaching limit, with expectations of more frequent occurrences in the future.
The preliminary nature of Copernicus’ data emphasizes the need for confirmation through real-life observations over the coming weeks. The world is already on a trajectory to exceed 1.5 degrees of warming in the next few years, a point beyond which human and ecosystem adaptation becomes challenging. Even if countries fulfill their current emissions-reduction pledges, a UN report indicates that the world could experience 2.5 to 2.9 degrees of warming this century.
Every fraction of a degree beyond 1.5 degrees worsens the impacts, with 2 degrees posing increased risks of deadly extreme weather and the potential for irreversible tipping points, such as polar ice sheet collapse and mass coral reef mortality. The breach is described as a “canary in the coalmine,” emphasizing the urgency of addressing greenhouse gas emissions.
The data follows the hottest 12 months on record and a year marked by extreme weather events globally, all intensified by the climate crisis. Reports indicate that the planet is heading towards dangerous levels of warming, with insufficient efforts to mitigate or adapt to its consequences. A UN report highlights a 9% increase in planet-heating pollution by 2030 compared to 2010, far exceeding the necessary 45% reduction recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Additionally, another UN report reveals plans to surpass fossil fuel production limits necessary for curbing global heating. By 2030, countries intend to produce more than double the limit required to cap warming at 1.5 degrees.
