Earth and Habitat (Commonwealth Union) _ For the past 12 months, the Earth has experienced unprecedented temperatures, averaging 1.5°C (2.7°F) higher than pre-fossil fuel era levels, according to new data. Between July 2023 and June 2024, global temperatures reached the highest on record, averaging 1.64°C above preindustrial levels. This extended period of extreme heat highlights the escalating impact of climate change and raises concerns about future temperature rises and their potential consequences.
This prolonged heatwave does not necessarily mean that world leaders have failed in their commitments to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. This target is measured in decadal averages, not individual years. However, the sustained heat has increased exposure to extreme weather, raising the risk of crossing catastrophic tipping points. Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, emphasized that this trend is not a statistical anomaly but a significant shift in the climate. He warned that new records will continue to be broken unless greenhouse gas emissions are curbed.
Copernicus, part of the EU’s space program, uses extensive data from satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations to monitor climate metrics. It found that June 2024 was the hottest June on record, marking the 12th consecutive month with temperatures 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. While other climate agencies may not confirm the 12-month streak due to small temperature margins, the trend is clear: rising carbon emissions are driving significant climate changes.
The rise in global temperatures has far-reaching implications. Aditi Mukherji, a director at CGIAR and co-author of the latest IPCC report, noted that extreme events increase with every increment of global warming, and at 1.5°C, we witnessed some of the hottest extremes this year. Certain ecosystems, such as tropical coral reefs, are particularly vulnerable. The IPCC’s latest review indicates that 1.5°C of warming could kill 70-90% of these reefs, with 2°C potentially wiping them out entirely.
A Guardian survey of IPCC authors revealed that three-quarters expect the planet to heat by at least 2.5°C by 2100, with about half predicting temperatures above 3°C. These small increments could mean the difference between widespread human suffering and semi-dystopian futures. François Gemenne, an IPCC author, and director of the Hugo Observatory at the University of Liège, stressed that the climate crisis is not a binary issue and every 0.1°C matters greatly. Even in a best-case scenario, he urged preparation for a warmer world, emphasizing the importance of robust response plans. Adaptation, he said, is not an admission that current efforts are useless but a necessary step to mitigate the impacts of a changing climate.
