India (Commonwealth Union)_ India is home to approximately two hundred million Muslims, making it one of the largest Muslim communities in the world. However, they remain a minority amidst the predominantly Hindu nation. With the commencement of the general elections on April 19, attention now turns to the impact of Muslim votes on the political landscape. The BJP rose to power through a coalition government in 1998, temporarily setting aside more radical objectives to maintain coalition unity. However, the party’s agenda, including proposals concerning the abrogation of the special status of Kashmir, the construction of a Hindu temple in Ayodhya, and the establishment of a uniform civil code, has consistently favored Hindu nationalist interests.
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According to experts, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), anti-Muslim sentiments have reportedly intensified, as the BJP has pursued a Hindu nationalist agenda since its ascent to power in 2014. Since the landmark victory of the BJP in the 2019 general elections, political analysts have closely monitored the response of the Muslim minority in the electoral arena. Additionally, despite constitutional protections, Muslims in India have long confronted discrimination, prejudice, and violence since the country’s independence.
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Furthermore, while data indicates that Muslims have predominantly cast their ballots against the BJP in subsequent state elections, complexities within the Muslim community have emerged. Accordingly, amidst this pattern of the Muslim vote, distinctions based on social and political factors such as caste hierarchies and groups have gained prominence, posing pertinent challenges amidst the 2024 general elections. Further, Muslims in India encounter discrimination across various domains including employment, education, housing, and political representation. Despite constitutional safeguards, they often face challenges in accessing justice and basic services.
Additionally, in December 2019, the Indian parliament ratified the Citizenship Amendment Act, allowing expedited citizenship for migrants from specific religious groups but excluding Muslims, leading to allegations of religious discrimination. While the Modi government argues that the law safeguards oppressed religious minorities, critics view it as discriminatory and divisive. As such, experts warn that prolonged Hindu nationalist rule could exacerbate the marginalization of Muslims in India. Furthermore, international condemnation has been directed at India’s treatment of Muslims, particularly concerning actions in Kashmir, the Citizenship Amendment Act, and instances of anti-Muslim rhetoric.
Notably, according to the UN human rights office, the Citizenship Amendment Act was fundamentally discriminatory. In 2022, Iran, Kuwait, and Qatar, among the predominantly Muslim nations, formally expressed their grievances against India regarding Islamophobic statements made by public officials. Further, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), composed of fifty-seven member states, urged India to address the escalating trend of Islamophobia and the systematic discrimination against Indian Muslims. However, amidst the strained situation, Modi has successfully strengthened India’s relations with Muslim-majority Gulf countries, such as the United Arab Emirates. For instance, in Abu Dhabi, he convened a rally for Indian expatriates and inaugurated a new Hindu temple, underscoring India’s deepening engagement with the region.
Additionally, caste dynamics are increasingly influencing political discourse and group dynamics among Muslims. This trend is evident in the growing attention to terms like “Pasmanda” in public discourse, particularly in North India. Since the 2019 elections, there has been a more unified trend towards Muslim voting, but simultaneously, caste considerations within the Muslim community have gained significance in recent times. Thus, while Muslims are unlikely to vote solely based on caste or sect in the ongoing 2024 elections, these sub-identities are expected to influence both campaigning and voting patterns to some extent.
Furthermore, despite being the third-largest Muslim population globally, Muslims in India are underrepresented in political institutions. The discrepancy in Muslim representation in legislative bodies is attributed to both party selection of Muslim candidates and voting patterns among Muslims. Additionally, even the major secular political parties in India do not proportionately nominate Muslim candidates in regions where they hold sway, nor do Muslim voters consistently align behind a single party. Muslims are concentrated in several key states, including Uttar Pradesh with 38.4 million Muslims, West Bengal with 24.6 million Muslims, Bihar, Assam, Kerala, Karnataka, and union territories Jammu and Kashmir and Lakshadweep where their votes can have significant electoral implications.
Concerning the southern states of India, the Muslim population is distributed as follows: 27 percent in Kerala, 12.5 percent in Karnataka, 12.7 percent in Telangana, 9.56 percent in Andhra Pradesh, and 6 percent in Tamil Nadu. Accordingly, the collective Muslim vote from South India could wield significant influence in determining a change of government at the national level, provided it unites with the common objective of transforming the power in the ongoing parliamentary elections. However, in Gujarat, despite comprising over 9% of the population and wielding influence in several assembly seats, Muslim representation in the legislature remains minimal, with no Muslim candidate elected to the Lok Sabha from the state in three decades.
Historically, Muslims have tended to support the Congress party. Notably, in the face of perceived marginalization under Hindu nationalist rule, they may increasingly align with opposition parties against BJP. In a notable event, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also faced criticism for remarks perceived as inflammatory toward Muslims during election campaigns, prompting concerns about communal tensions and political polarization in India. He had stated, “When they (Congress) were in power, they said Muslims have first right over the country’s wealth. They will take all your wealth and distribute it among those who have more children … among infiltrators. Do you think your hard-earned money should be given to infiltrators? Would you accept this?”.
Accordingly, the BJP supporters’ concerns regarding the potential demographic dominance of Muslims in India have been exacerbated by such remarks. Notably, Muslims constitute approximately 200 million of India’s total population of 1.4 billion, intensifying concerns among the majority Hindu populace. Additionally, India has grappled with a history of violence and communal tensions between Hindus and Muslims spanning several years, underscoring the deep-seated complexities within its social fabric. The Congress party, denouncing the comments as profoundly objectionable, urged the Election Commission of India to launch an investigation into the matter. Accordingly, a commission official disclosed that the complaints are presently under review.
Overall, Muslim communities, similar to other societal factions, express concern over their worsening economic circumstances. The communal divide does not alter their perceptions of daily life nor diminish their determination for collective survival. Moreover, Muslim communities continue to regard political involvement as imperative for their existence as a religious minority. Their discomfort with the assertive Hindu nationalist ideology, Hindutva, prompts an ongoing quest for the most viable political alternative. Consequently, a segment of Muslims also does not hesitate to extend support to the BJP.
In general, Muslim voting patterns in India’s general elections are influenced by a complex interplay of factors including religious identity, socioeconomic concerns, caste influence, and political dynamics, with implications for both electoral outcomes and broader communal relations. Furthermore, Muslims also acknowledge the political significance of Narendra Modi’s leadership. However, responses to this aspect vary widely, as Modi is both revered and reviled, and even overlooked by some. This perspective of Muslims, in essence, underscores their careful and nonviolent efforts to establish a significant presence in modern-day India.
