How the U.S.–Iran War, Oil Market Turmoil, and Trump Tariffs Are Reshaping Global Trade

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Blank Rome (BR)’s monthly digital newsletter highlights international trade, cross-border investments, and geopolitical risk issues that impact businesses domestically & overseas.

 

Recent Developments

U.S. war with Iran

The United States and Israel launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran

Following unsuccessful negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding Iran’s nuclear program, the U.S. and Israel launched military assaults on Iran on Saturday, 28 February ‘26. These military assaults resulted in the death of the then-Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This incident sparked off Iranian retaliation across the region.

 

Global crude oil markets disrupted by war

Global crude oil prices have responded by swinging wildly. This was as Iranian retaliatory military strikes disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The Hormuz is a key passage through which nearly 1/5th (that’s equivalent to 20%) of the global crude oil supplies transit.

 

The Trump administration is reviewing waiving some oil-related sanctions to curb price volatility

 

President Trump updated media reporters in Florida on how the U.S. may ‘take certain oil sanctions off’ until the energy market stabilizes. This was on Monday, 9 March. President Trump’s comments follow the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s issuance of a likely renewable 30-day general license (that expires on Saturday, 4 April ’26). This temporary waiver permitted Indian refineries to once again purchase Russian crude oil and petroleum products. This waiver follows the U.S.–India trade deals concluded in February ‘26. This deal was where the U.S. removed its previous 25% tariff on Indian goods, which was in exchange for India ceasing its purchases of Russian crude oil.

 

Iran names Mojtaba Khamenei as new Supreme Leader

 

On Sunday, 8 March, Iran’s Assembly of Experts voted to appoint Mojtabe Khamenei, the late Ali Khamenei’s son, as the new Supreme Leader of Iran.

How the U.S.–Iran War, Oil Market Turmoil, and Trump Tariffs Are Reshaping Global Trade

U.S. tariff developments

 

The U.S. Supreme Court declines ‘reciprocal’ & ‘trafficking’ tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)

 

The Supreme Court overturned tariffs imposed pursuant to IEEPA in a 6-3 ruling on Friday, 20 February. The question here was IEEPA’s authority to regulate imports. This was when analyzing in context with the act’s other verbs. It doesn’t authorize the imposition of tariffs. In response, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) ceased collecting IEEPA tariffs from Tuesday, 24 February ’26. At such a preliminary stage, it is unclear how the Supreme Court’s decision will impact U.S. trade deals.

 

President Trump issues the 1st-ever tariffs, categorized under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974

 

Immediately following the Supreme Court’s decision, President Trump signed Proclamation 11012. This imposed a 150-day 10% tariff on imports to address ‘fundamental international payments problems.’ This legislation was effective from Tuesday, 24 February. 24 state attorneys general have since brought suit to the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT). They asserted that the statutory prerequisites for use of Section 122 have not been met.

 

CIT directs CBP to refund IEEPA tariffs

 

The CIT issued a sweeping order directing CBP to liquidate any unliquidated entries subject to the IEEPA duties on Wednesday, 4 March. This order is without regard to the IEEPA duties. Where liquidation is not final, any liquidated entries shall be liquidated without regard to IEEPA duties. In response, CBP filed a declaration in court, explaining the technical difficulties associated with complying with this court order. It also described efforts by CBP in developing a new functionality in the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) to streamline the refund process and enhance compliance with court orders. This move was with the aim of issuing refunds in a more timely manner. The CIT subsequently suspended its order. This was because the CIT now requires immediate compliance.

 

U.S. starts trade investigations into key trading partners

 

On Wednesday, 11 March, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer announced a wave of investigations under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act. This was concerning ‘structural excess capacity besides production in manufacturing sectors’ of many economies. These investigations will focus on several economies that include China, the EU, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, India, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, & Vietnam.

The USTR review will assess whether any of the practices of these mentioned economies burden or restrict U.S. commerce in any manner whatsoever. Additionally, the review will determine whether tariffs or any other remedial actions would be appropriate.

Roshan Abayasekara
Roshan Abayasekara
Was seconded by Sri Lankan blue chip conglomerate - John Keells Holdings (JKH) to its fully owned subsidiary - Mackinnon Mackenzie Shipping (MMS) in 1995 as a Junior Executive. MMS, in turn, allocated Roshan to its then principal, P&O Containers regional office for container management in the South Asia region. P&O Containers employed British representatives whom Roshan then understudied. During the ‘90s, Roshan relocated to Dubai, UAE, where Roshan specialised in logistics. More recently, Roshan acquired a Merit award in a postgraduate diploma in Business Administration from the University of Northampton, UK.

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