Mud-filled streets, Shattered windows and a desperate search for the missing. These are the effects of one of the most catastrophic storms to hit Acapulco in years.
The fury and quick strengthening of Hurricane Otis shocked both forecasters and hurricane experts.
Wind speeds jumped by 115 mph within a day. It generally takes much longer for that kind of increase. The National Hurricane Center reported that the Otis’ intensification rate is the second fastest recorded in modern times. The change prompted the Center to define the disaster as a “nightmare scenario.”
According to a recent study published in Scientific Reports, this type of explosive growth is a phenomenon known as rapid intensification. Presently It has become more common in some areas.
Andra J. Garner, PhD said that, these studies show that, over time there can be a high chance of storms intensifying most quickly in regions which include the tropical eastern Atlantic, a region along the U.S, Southern Caribbean Sea and East Coast.
The research points to a warming planet as the cause behind stronger storms. 2023 experienced an extremely high surface temperatures in the ocean. Otis, for example, passed through 88-degree surface waters before slamming into Mexico. Similarly, Hurricane Idalia quickly intensified from a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 4 storm before hitting the Florida coast in August.
Richard Knabb, a meteorologist at The Weather Channel and the former director of the National Hurricane Center said that, “We would not see as strong of hurricanes if we didn’t have the warm ocean and Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, that is the fuel.”
Presently, NOAA is sending drones in the air, on the water and below the ocean’s surface to predict better when conditions could cause rapid intensification.
Knabb says, imagine the ocean as the gas tank for the hurricane which is the engine and the more high-octane fuel you give it, the more it is able to go faster in terms of its maximum speed and the fuel which they use is the warm waters from the ocean. The hurricane converts the energy in the ocean into low pressure that generates all the wind.”
Researchers at NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, are also using artificial intelligence, or AI, to investigate that data as soon as possible.
Knabb says, Artificial intelligence is being observed to sift through all data coming from forecast models, helping us make more informed human forecasts based on all that uncertainty and much of the country is vulnerable to the inland impacts, and that mean inland flooding could flood all communities like we saw with Ida. Which means strong winds like we saw in the state of Ohio after Hurricane Ike came ashore in the Gulf of Mexico in 2008, and look at what is happening in inland areas in California with Hurricane Hilary earlier this year.
These advancements in technology couldn’t prepare the individuals of Acapulco for what was to come from Otis. Two days after landfall, thousands remained without communication or power. The outages and devastated infrastructure have so far prevented authorities from being able to survey the full extent of the damage.
Presently the meteorologists are keeping a close eye on the ocean to see what comes next. Until November 30th the Atlantic hurricane season will not end.
