Health, UK (Commonwealth Union) – Hip fractures represent a critical health concern, particularly in the context of an aging population and the associated increase in fragility fractures.
This represents a pressing issue that demands immediate attention and concerted efforts. By understanding the factors driving the surge in hip fractures and implementing proactive measures, healthcare systems can better prepare to meet the needs of an aging population, ensuring that individuals receive timely and effective care. The call to action is clear: it is time to prioritize the management of hip fractures and invest in a healthier and more resilient future for our aging society.
Recent studies conducted by the University of Aberdeen predict a significant rise in the number of hip fracture cases in the coming decade, creating a strain on the National Health Service (NHS) with an anticipated shortfall exceeding £25 million annually. The current infrastructure of NHS hospitals is ill-prepared to handle the projected surge in hip fracture patients. According to Dr. Luke Farrow, the Clinical Research Fellow at the University and Chair of the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit Quality Improvement and Research Sub-group, urgent action is required to develop a comprehensive national plan for effectively managing the increasing burden of hip and other fragility fractures in the future.
The research team utilized data extracted from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit spanning the years 2017 to 2021, coupled with statistical forecasting techniques to anticipate the annual occurrences of hip fractures from 2022 to 2029. The analysis revealed a surge in annual hip fractures from 6675 to 7797 between 2017 and 2021. Projections indicate that by 2029, the annual number of hip fractures is expected to reach 10,311, denoting a 32 percent rise from the 2021 figures. This translates to an escalation from an average of 21 daily hip fractures in Scotland to 28 per day.
In light of these estimations, the collective duration of hospitalization post-hip fracture in Scotland is poised to extend by a cumulative 60,699 days annually, resulting in an additional expenditure of at least £25 million each year.
Fragility fractures of the femur presently contribute significantly to the overall ‘acute care bed burden’ in the country. The report suggests that accommodating this heightened activity would necessitate an approximate addition of 5 acute hip fracture beds per hospital.
Dr Farrow explains: “Our predictions show that there is a need for a clear national plan for tackling the future burden of all fragility fractures, which should include a big public health focus on fracture prevention measures such as reducing falls in older adults and osteoporosis, weak bone, treatment.
“NHS healthcare services, including those that cater for hip fracture patients, are already significantly stretched. If the projected increases are not accounted for in future workforce, theatre capacity and bed planning then there is a real risk that the services will not be able to cope with the increased demand, and the quality of care that patients receive may diminish as a result.
“It is likely that this would likely have a knock-on effect of increased patient mortality and further strain on healthcare services managing complications associated with sub-optimal treatment that might have otherwise been avoided.
Dr. Farrow also emphasizes, that the growing health and social care challenges posed by fragility trauma, spurred by an aging population, stand out as one of the primary obstacles confronting the NHS in the coming decade. He further indicated that urgent action is imperative to guarantee that we possess sufficient resources to effectively handle these surges; otherwise, the quality of care is likely to be significantly compromised.
Measures applied are likely to be beneficial to many other industrialized nations that also ageing populations.
