Russian crude remains part of the mix for India’s crude oil sourcing needs. However, Russian crude volumes have decreased to 1.2 mb/d. Refiners like Reliance and MRPL, with a Middle Eastern backlog, have augmented this decrease. The goal is to ensure compliance with tighter global sanctions, besides sustaining operational reliability.
In January 2026, India’s crude oil import patterns reflected a clear shift towards lower-risk supplies that are also certain to be executed. Higher intake from the Middle East offsets a more selective and compliance-driven approach to Russian crude. This information is based on data and analysis conducted by Kpler.
This trend tends not to point to a wholesale replacement of Russian crude. It reflects what Kpler articulates as ‘de-risking rather than replacing’ with refiners’ recalibration of their crude slate. This transition is amidst rising sanctions, which include scrutiny, compliance pressure, and execution complexity. Russia sustains itself as being part of India’s crude basket. However, volumes are no longer at the elevated levels witnessed during the 2023–2025 period. Middle Eastern barrels are increasingly being deployed as stabilising backfills.
Kpler asserted that in early 2026, India’s overall crude strategy reflects a more cautious stance. Refiners prioritise execution with certainty. Besides this, it also supplies reliability and product export optionality. This is done while avoiding barrels that tend to carry a higher regulatory or operational risk.
Kpler predicts that India will import approximately 1.2 million barrels of Russian crude daily (mb/d) on average in January 2026, covering the entire Q1 2026 period. The flows, however, tend to be inconsistent rather than consistent. The decline reflects a reset in buying behaviour. It follows heightened sanctions and compliance-linked risks.
Kpler shared that the decrease in Russian crude intake, observed since December 2025, seems to have carried into early 2026. It’s driven by adjustments across India’s buyer base. Reliance Industries has stepped back from Russian crude, so it has removed the previous largest single source of demand. This is while Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. (MRPL) has largely reduced its Russian purchases as of November 25th.
Other refiners have also reduced their activities. HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL) has sourced only limited Russian volumes recently. Meanwhile, state-owned refiners have remained cautious in lifting Russian cargoes.
The cautious tone has been reinforced by export-orientated refiners. Refiners are taking a step back in anticipation of tighter restrictions. They came into effect on 21 January 2026. They reduce the attractiveness of processing Russian crude. This change is for products that may experience higher marketing or export hurdles.
While Russian intake has softened, India has increased crude imports sourced from the Middle East over the last two months. This is particularly true during the first half of January 2026, guided by Kpler data.
The rise in Middle Eastern flows reflects a combination of changing economics. Also, rising execution complexities are associated with Russian crude. The list includes challenges related to shipping availability. In addition, the list encompasses challenges related to insurance, payment pathways, and compliance with sanctions.
Kpler added that refiners are increasingly prioritising predictable supply chains in addition to smoother cargo execution. This has tilted buying decisions in favour of Middle Eastern grades. This shift also supports operational stability for refiners, which seek to minimise downstream constraints. The increase is particularly linked to product exports.
More importantly, the higher Middle Eastern intake confirms that India is not experiencing a shortage of crude supply. Instead, India actively rebalances its crude slate in favour of origins that offer greater certainty. This is done while still including Russian crude in the mix, where execution remains feasible.
Kpler went on to add that new or tighter sanctions on Iran are unlikely to have a direct impact on India’s crude purchases during January 2026. This is due to the fact that India has not officially imported Iranian crude during the past 7 years, since mid-2019. This move follows the end of U.S. sanctions waivers.
