India – Recently the agriculture minister says that Russian grain exporters see potential to increase supplies of pulses and cereals to India and China while continuing to focus on their traditional markets in the Middle East and North Africa. Turkey’s decision to stop wheat imports will not affect the level of Russian exports, this was a statement following talks between Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut and grain exporters. The ministry said that the meeting members came to the consensus that Turkey’s refusal to import will not affect the export potential of our country, since in the new (2024/25) season it is planned to lessen the supply to the world market from Russia to 60 million tons of grain. In the present environment, domestic exporters will focus on the key markets of the Middle East and North Africa, as well as on developing relations with India and China, where there is an improvement in the amount of pulses and better prospects for grain crops.
A few days ago, Turkey announced that it would halt wheat imports from the 21st of June until the 15th of October, to protect farmers from price fluctuations, create a better market for producers, and ensure domestic procurement of raw materials. For Russian wheat Turkey and Egypt have traditionally been key importers. Lut said that Turkey would remain Russia’s strategic partner and its decision did not pose difficulties for Russia. She also added that they do not see any difficulties. But the harvest will be significantly less than the last two years, it will not have any negative impact. We trade with a large amount of countries, and our wheat is needed in many countries. In Russia, the Spring frosts which were followed by drought have already caused huge damage to the 2024 crop. The agriculture ministry is continuing its harvest forecast of 132 million tons but if the drought continues in several areas, then it may change.
For the wheat component of the harvest, Agricultural consultancies have already lessened their forecasts – IKAR to 81.5 million metric tons and Sovecon to 80.5 million. Against the backdrop of high harvests in recent years, to find new markets, Russia has been actively increasing exports. In the 2023/24 season which is ending on the 30th of June, grain exports are estimated at up to 70 million tons, as well as 53 million tons of wheat. VTB VTBR.MM board member Vitaly Sergey Chuk said that Russia may narrow the spread of its grain exports in the new season due to crop issues and keeping supplies to its traditional markets. According to the Rusgrain Union, as of mid-April Turkey was the second buyer of Russian wheat. Egypt graded first, Bangladesh third, with Pakistan and Algeria also within the top five importers. Last season grain supplies to Turkey fell by 23% reaching 6.5 million tons at the end of May.
