Science & Technology (Commonwealth Union) – Current climate policies present a significant risk of triggering critical Earth system changes, even if global temperatures fall back below 1.5 °C after a period of exceeding this threshold. A recent study published in Nature Communications suggests that this risk can be reduced if warming is rapidly reversed. Researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and other institutions emphasize the importance of cutting emissions in this decade to ensure the stability of Earth’s systems. Their research focuses on four key climate tipping elements: the Greenland Ice Sheet, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the Amazon Rainforest.
Researchers indicated that human-induced climate change has the potential to destabilize major Earth system components, such as ice sheets and ocean circulation patterns—referred to as tipping elements. Although these elements will not collapse overnight, the underlying processes can unfold over tens, hundreds, or even thousands of years. The researchers argue that such significant changes are to be avoided at all costs. Their study assesses the risks of destabilizing at least one tipping element due to exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold. The findings underscore the critical need to meet the climate goals set by the Paris Agreement and highlight the long-term impact of today’s climate actions or inactions.
The co-lead author Tessa Möller, a researcher at IIASA and PIK pointed out that although the timescales extending to 2300 and beyond may seem distant, it is crucial to assess tipping risks as accurately as possible. According to their findings, reaching and sustaining net-zero greenhouse gas emissions is essential to minimizing these risks for centuries to come. Möller, further stated that their analysis indicates that adhering to current policies until the century’s end could result in a 45 percent chance of triggering at least one of the four tipping elements by 2300.
Researchers further stressed that exceeding 2°C Global Warming Significantly Heightens Tipping Risks with the need to reduce global warming.
Annika Ernest Högner from PIK, who co-led the research warned that they observed that tipping risks increase with each fraction of a degree of warming beyond 1.5°C. However, surpassing 2°C would lead to an even more rapid rise in these risks. Högner further pointed out that it is particularly alarming since current climate policies are projected to cause approximately 2.6°C of warming by the end of the century.
“Our study confirms that tipping risks in response to overshoots can be minimised if warming is swiftly reversed. Such a reversal of global warming can only be achieved if greenhouse gas emissions reach at least net-zero by 2100. The results underline the importance of the Paris Agreement’s climate objectives to limit warming to well below 2 °C even in case of a temporary overshoot above 1.5 °C, “explained the study author Nico Wunderling of PIK.
The study examines four key tipping elements crucial for maintaining the stability of Earth’s climate system. Currently, complex Earth system models cannot fully simulate their non-linear behaviors, feedbacks, and interactions. To address this, the researchers employed a stylized Earth system model to capture the main features and dynamics of these tipping elements, systematically accounting for relevant uncertainties as well as their interactions.
“This analysis of tipping point risks adds further support to the conclusion that we are underestimating risks, and need to now recognise that the legally binding objective in the Paris Agreement of holding global warming to ‘well below 2°C’, in reality means limiting global warming to 1.5°C,”said the PIK director and author of the study Johan Rockström.
Looking into how to stop climate change and how to prevent global warming has been a key focuss of environmentalists. The climate change solutions to stop climate change have involved years of research.
