Toyota is poised to kickstart South Africa’s fledgling electric vehicle (EV) industry with a big play: three electric models in early 2026. The play, by Toyota South Africa CEO Andrew Kirby, marks a dramatic strategic shift for the manufacturer in a market that has been dominated for years by hybrids.
Currently, Toyota holds a commanding 67% share of the hybrid and plug‑in hybrid (PHEV) segment in South Africa, largely driven by the popularity of its Corolla Cross model. Despite leading the hybrid segment by a wide margin, Toyota’s presence in South Africa still lacks a fully electric offering.
The Landscape: Barriers Amid Opportunity
The entry into the EV market coincides with South Africa‘s still low adoption rate of electric vehicles. Just 0.24% of total vehicle sales in 2024 consisted of battery electric vehicles, illustrating the glacial pace of uptake. Prohibitively costly import taxes—25% for electric vehicles compared to 18% for diesel and petrol cars—compound this apathy, especially when combined with other taxation. Further still, low average incomes, frequently patchy access to electricity, and few charging points have combined to suppress purchasing interest.
Adding to the competitive pressure, European manufacturers such as Volvo, BMW, and Mercedes‑Benz currently lead EV sales in South Africa. Meanwhile, Chinese electric marques like BYD are rapidly expanding their presence, fueled by export restrictions in their traditional markets.
Toyota’s Multi‑Pathway Powertrain Strategy
Andrew Kirby emphasised Toyota’s flexible, multi‑pathway powertrain strategy. He underlined the company’s commitment to maintaining a broad spectrum of offerings, including internal combustion engines (ICE), hybrids, plug‑in hybrids, battery EVs, fuel‑cell vehicles, and potentially even carbon‑neutral ICEs, to adapt to evolving market conditions.
Policy and Industry Interventions
Kirby also sounded a note of caution regarding policy challenges. He highlighted how current taxation frameworks are counterproductive to the growth of EVs and suggested that the company, alongside BMW, Isuzu, Volkswagen, and others, had submitted fiscally neutral policy recommendations—including restructuring rebate systems—to the South African trade and industry minister. He expressed hope that some short‑term interventions might be forthcoming within six months.
The domestic automotive sector is at what Kirby described as an “inflection point”: production volumes have stagnated, local content is declining, and imported cars are on the rise. These dynamics underscore the urgency for supportive industrial and regulatory measures.
Roll‑Out Strategy and Localisation
Toyota’s initial electric models will be imported, but the company eyes local production in due course. This staged approach is a tempered commercial decision, with Toyota wanting to test market demand without incurring high costs and complexity. If demand is sufficient, the groundwork is laid for local assembly, which would also support South Africa’s manufacturing sector and employment base.
However, this conversion to local production will not be without issues. Establishing EV assembly in South Africa would require a massive investment in new tooling, training of employees, and potentially even battery supply chains—a shift away from the currently ICE-focused infrastructure. While Toyota’s pre-existing presence is forward-looking, the achievement of this localisation effort will depend to a significant degree on facilitating industrial policy, good-quality electricity supply, and high levels of consumer take-up within the initial years following the launch of the models.
Navigating the Road Ahead
Toyota’s anticipated entry into South Africa’s all-electric vehicle market in early 2026 is a benchmark for the company and the industry as a whole. Hybrids may still hold the advantage, but Toyota’s shift hints at a growing belief in South Africa’s electric future—however gradual that journey may be.
A successful EV strategy in South Africa will not just rely on Toyota’s model offerings but also on broader ecosystem expansion: affordable price, stable power, mass-market charging, and supportive government policy. If all these fit together, the seeds planted today may bear fruit in an electrified automotive future for South Africa.
