The Race for Critical Minerals: China, the U.S., and Africa’s Strategic Role in the Green Transition

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Africa (Commonwealth Union) _ The global shift toward clean energy has sparked a high-stakes race for control over critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, placing China and the United States in direct geopolitical competition. These minerals are indispensable to sectors including electric vehicle batteries, semiconductors, renewable energy systems, and defense technologies.

Currently, China holds a dominant position in global mineral processing: it refines more than 60% of lithium, 85% of rare earths, and 95% of manganese. This dominance has raised concerns about strategic vulnerabilities, particularly after China restricted exports of gallium and germanium, key inputs in electronics, highlighting how mineral trade can be weaponized.

Despite having strong capabilities in semiconductor design, the U.S. is import-dependent for all of its supply of 15 critical minerals and over 50% of 34 others, many of which come from China. Recognizing the risk, the Biden administration passed the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act to boost domestic semiconductor production. Meanwhile, Trump’s administration has pushed for a more aggressive approach, accelerating domestic mining and floating controversial ideas like acquiring Greenland for its mineral wealth.

To diversify supply and reduce dependence on China, the U.S. has formed alliances with countries such as Canada, Australia, and EU members through the Minerals Security Partnership, promoting “friendshoring” of mineral production. However, these strategies also face global pushback and growing competition for influence in mineral-rich regions like Africa.

Africa, which holds about 30% of known global mineral reserves, including the majority of global manganese and cobalt, has become a strategic battleground. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) alone possesses around 70% of the world’s cobalt. Yet, African countries remain economically dependent on exporting raw materials rather than developing local processing industries. For example, while unrefined bauxite sells for about $92 per ton, processed aluminum fetches $2,438 per ton, illustrating missed opportunities.

To address this, the U.S. is supporting initiatives like the Lobito Corridor, a railway project connecting Angola to mineral-rich regions of Zambia and the DRC, intended to foster in-country processing and boost economic development. Such initiatives aim to move away from the exploitative models of the past by promoting ethical, environmentally sustainable, and economically viable (“E3”) partnerships.

Still, the limited presence of American mining firms in Sub-Saharan Africa contrasts sharply with China’s long-standing investments. U.S. success in securing critical mineral supply chains will depend on combining technological innovation with ethical diplomacy, infrastructure support, and long-term partnerships that truly benefit mineral-rich countries.

 

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