President-elect Donald Trump has accused retiring pollster J. Ann Selzer of potential “ELECTION FRAUD” following her final Iowa Poll, inaccurately predicting that Vice President Kamala Harris would take the lead over Trump in the state just days before the election. Trump ultimately carried Iowa by a significant margin, securing a 13-point victory.
Posting on Truth Social, Trump described the survey as a “totally Fake poll that caused great distrust and uncertainty at a very critical time,” He accused Selzer and the Des Moines Register, which published the poll, of sowing confusion among voters, implying that there may have been deliberate wrongdoing. “She knew exactly what she was doing,” Trump claimed, urging an investigation into what he labeled as possible “ELECTION FRAUD.”
Selzer, regarded as one of the nation’s top pollsters, also announced her retirement on Sunday. Over her 30-year career, she has earned several accolades for accuracy, including an “A+” rating from FiveThirtyEight. However, her final poll—showing Harris leading Trump by three points—marked an uncharacteristic miss that stirred criticism.
In response to Trump’s allegations, Selzer defended her methodology and professionalism. She explained that her team followed the same processes they have used since 2008, which have historically delivered reliable results. Addressing accusations of fraud, Selzer emphasized that such claims are baseless and that she has documentation to validate the poll, including receipts from data collection vendors.
“The poll reflected what respondents told us at the time,” Selzer said in an interview. “While the result did not align with Election Day outcomes, there’s no evidence to suggest misconduct. Election fraud is a crime, and to insinuate such is deeply irresponsible.”
Selzer attributed the polling discrepancy to potential late shifts in voter sentiment or inaccuracies in how respondents reported their preferences. However, she admitted the result was disappointing, saying, “Would I have preferred my final poll to align with the results? Of course. But it doesn’t change my commitment to transparency and accuracy.”
Selzer insists that her retirement was a long-planned decision, despite the controversy. She expressed a desire to pivot toward private-sector projects after decades in the high-pressure world of political polling. “Election polling is intense, and I’m looking forward to making contributions in other areas where I can bring value,” she said.
Trump’s remarks have amplified debates about the role of polling in elections and its influence on voter perception. While Selzer’s record has received widespread praise, the fallout from this polling error highlights the scrutiny pollsters endure in shaping the narrative of close political races.
