The Middle East is in serious conflict after the US and Israel carried out major attacks on Iran. These strikes began on 28 February and hit Iran’s missile bases, military sites, and key leaders in Tehran and other areas. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had led the country since 1989, lost his life during the first attacks.
Israel also reported that dozens of senior commanders in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) died. Since then, Iran has retaliated with missiles and drones targeting Israel and countries hosting US forces, including Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Drones struck the US embassy in Riyadh and a car park near the US consulate in Dubai. Attacks have also hit civilian locations like hotels and ships, and Iran has accused the US and Israel of hitting a girls’ school near an IRGC base, reportedly killing over 160 people.
The death toll in Iran is rising quickly. The Iranian Red Crescent reports 787 deaths, while HRANA, a US-based group monitoring civilian casualties, says over 1,000 civilians, including 181 children, have been killed. The violence has largely shut down Iran’s internet and airspace.
Why Have the US and Israel Attacked Iran?
The US and Israel say their attacks were pre-emptive to prevent serious threats. Israel stated it acted to stop potential attacks against its territory, while the US joined to protect its forces in the region. Both countries have long opposed Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes, fearing Iran could develop weapons.
Other reasons include Iran’s long-standing hostility toward Israel and the US, its support for militia groups across the Middle East, and its growing military power. Israeli officials also said the operation followed months of strategic planning, designed to surprise Iran. Critics, however, argue that evidence of an immediate threat was not publicly shown before the strikes began.
IAEA Comments on Concerns Surrounding Iran’s Nuclear Program
Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said there is currently no evidence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon, but serious concerns remain. He noted that Iran has a large stockpile of enriched uranium approaching weapons-grade levels, which could be dangerous if used improperly. These comments come as tensions rise between Iran, the US, and Israel, and failed nuclear negotiations are meant to limit Iran’s enrichment activities and reduce the risk of nuclear escalation.
Expanding Conflict and Global Effects
The war is spreading beyond Iran. Llah in Llah, Lebanon, fired rockets at Israel, prompting Israeli attacks on Beirut and southern Lebanon. Israel warned that ground troops may move further into Lebanon to stop Hezbollah attacks.
Thousands of civilians have fled conflict zones. Over 30,000 people in Lebanon have experienced displacement. The fighting is also hitting global energy supplies. Iran’s attacks on shipping have disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nearly 20% of the world’s oil. Oil and gas operations in Oman, UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have been damaged or paused. This caused oil prices to jump, with Brent crude reaching nearly $84 per barrel. The US Navy has stated it is ready to protect ships and keep global energy flowing. In Iran, a temporary leadership council is running the country while officials select a new supreme leader.
The Assembly of Experts, a group of 88 senior clerics, will formally choose Khamenei’s successor. The IRGC has already appointed Ahmad Vahidi as its new commander-in-chief. Travel in the region is highly disrupted. Many Middle Eastern countries have closed their airspace, grounding flights. Airlines such as Emirates and Etihad are operating a limited number of repatriation flights. Qatar Airways has also started relief flights to Europe.
Governments such as the UK are helping evacuate citizens from Oman and other nearby locations.
The duration of the conflict remains uncertain. US leaders predict military actions could last four to five weeks but could extend much longer. Israeli officials say the campaign will continue “as long as needed.”. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of people have fled affected areas, including around 100,000 from Tehran alone in the first days of the attacks. In Lebanon and Syria, tens of thousands have also moved to safety. The situation in the Middle East is changing fast. Casualties are rising, and more countries are getting involved, which is exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and leading to increased international calls for intervention. The conflict is affecting the global economy. The fighting has trapped civilians. The rising energy prices are significantly disrupting international travel. The region is becoming one of the most unstable in the world.
