During his recent visit to the White House on Monday, US President Donald Trump praised the strong bilateral friendship with Australia. He highlighted the relationship’s unmatched strength while meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for their first official consultation. President Trump stated, “We’ve been long-term, long-time allies, and I would say there’s never been anybody better… We fought wars together, and we never had any doubts.” This enthusiastic public display contrasts with the growing strategic concerns inside Canberra’s political circles. For the first time, Australia is critically examining the reliability of its key ally.
Before his trip to Washington, a meeting Prime Minister Albanese had reportedly worked to arrange for several months, he highlighted its significance as a chance to strengthen ties. He noted that Australia and the United States have historically stood together in all major conflicts for more than a century. However, the changing global landscape is testing Washington’s global power. The current administration’s isolationist rhetoric raises questions about the reliability of traditional alliances. Long-held beliefs about the US partnership are starting to unravel. Analysts like Sam Roggeveen from the Lowy Institute have pointed out that the Trump administration has questioned the reliability of the United States as an ally.
President Trump’s first term caused significant diplomatic friction for Australia. Many anticipated that a second term would lead to similar instability. A major issue was the administration’s imposition of broad tariffs, including a 10% import tax on most Australian goods, increasing to 50% for aluminium and steel. Such action was seen as a violation of a long-standing free trade agreement, prompting Albanese to publicly assert that such actions were “not the act of a friend.”
The recent review of the significant AUKUS defence pact further underscored the uncertainty in the relationship. Although the Albanese government publicly expressed confidence in the agreement—which provides cutting-edge nuclear submarine technology to Australia in exchange for help in countering China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific—the White House’s “America First” approach and challenges within the US submarine supply chain created anxiety in Canberra. The lengthy process of securing the meeting, sometimes seen as a diplomatic slight, along with a previous awkward interaction between Defence Minister Richard Marles and his US counterpart, highlighted the perception of instability.
In the end, the official meeting on Monday wrapped up successfully for the Prime Minister. Albanese received a renewed commitment to AUKUS, effectively concluding the extended review and securing a new deal for US investment to develop Australia’s critical minerals industry. This move aims to counter China’s near monopoly in that sector. While the tariffs remain a sticking point—though at the lowest rate applied to any US trading partner—the overall instability caused by President Trump’s unpredictable dealings with other allies continues to generate rising public and political doubt about the US alliance. Opinion polls show a consistent decline in approval for the US leader in Australia, with fewer citizens believing that America is a reliable ally under his leadership.
Despite these concerns, a significant strategic paradox remains: polling indicates that around half of Australians view the alliance as more important than ever. Xi Jinping’s foreign policy and military expansion primarily drive this belief, ironically strengthening the rationale for US alignment. As Jared Mondschein from the United States Studies Centre noted, it is challenging to suggest a viable alternative to the US given the current regional security situation. Many partners across the Asia-Pacific are choosing the uncertainty of a term-limited US administration over the perceived certainty of a future dominated by Beijing. Therefore, while Australia’s feelings toward the US are shifting, the strategic necessity of the alliance is unlikely to lessen significantly in the near future.
