(Commonwealth_India) India’s wheat sector has undergone a remarkable recovery, with a robust harvest in 2025 enabling the country to replenish domestic reserves and eliminate the need for imports, despite earlier speculation to the contrary. This season marks a significant departure from recent years, during which successive heatwaves severely impacted crop yields, drained national stockpiles, and led to record-high domestic wheat prices. The resulting supply shortfalls prompted concerns that India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer, might have to import wheat for the first time since 2017.
In response to declining production, India imposed an export ban on wheat in 2022, which was extended through 2023 and 2024 due to persistent climate-related stress on agriculture. These measures were critical in managing domestic availability during a period when the Food Corporation of India (FCI), the government’s grain procurement and distribution agency, was struggling to meet its targets due to poor harvests. However, conditions have improved markedly in the current season. Better weather, particularly milder temperatures in March, the widespread use of climate-resilient seed varieties, and adequate soil moisture following a strong monsoon in the previous year have all contributed to a substantial increase in wheat output.
Preliminary figures from FCI’s ongoing procurement operations indicate that this year’s harvest is approximately four million metric tons larger than the previous year’s. According to Amit Takkar, head of the New Delhi-based consultancy Conifer Commodities, India appears to have emerged from the period of uncertainty regarding wheat supply and is now well-positioned to satisfy domestic demand without resorting to imports. By late May, FCI had procured 29.7 million metric tons of wheat from farmers—its highest acquisition level in four years. The increase marks a significant turnaround following three years of underperformance in procurement due to poor yields.
Food Minister Pralhad Joshi has projected that total procurement could rise to between 32 million and 32.5 million metric tons this season. Combined with the 11.8 million metric tons of wheat held in reserve at the beginning of the marketing year on April 1, this would bring the total FCI stockpiles to roughly 44 million metric tons. This figure comfortably exceeds FCI’s annual requirement of 18.4 million metric tons, which is used to support India’s extensive food welfare program that provides free grain to nearly 800 million citizens.
This strong inventory position ensures food security and enhances the government’s capacity to stabilize market prices by releasing wheat into the open market should domestic prices spike. As a result, officials and industry experts alike have effectively ruled out the likelihood of imports—previously a key source of speculation among global traders.
India’s absence from the international wheat market is expected to have a tangible impact on global pricing trends. With other major wheat producers such as Argentina, Australia, and Canada reporting strong output and Chinese import demand weakening, the global wheat market is facing a supply glut. This dynamic has already begun to exert downward pressure on prices, which have more than halved from their 2022 peaks and recently reached their lowest level in nearly five years.
The improvement in India’s wheat production has been driven by a combination of favorable agro-climatic conditions and responsive market behavior. The critical growing period in March was characterized by milder weather, which improved grain filling and overall yields. Many farmers also benefited from using high-yielding seed varieties specifically designed to withstand climate stress. Additionally, a nearly 15 percent rise in domestic wheat prices over the past year incentivized farmers to allocate more acreage and inputs to wheat cultivation.
In Madhya Pradesh, a central Indian state known for producing high-quality wheat suited for processed foods such as pasta and pizza, farmers have reported strong yields. Sunil Dubey, a farmer from the region, attributed the improved performance of his crop to favorable weather and confirmed that he had sold his entire harvest to FCI. Many of his peers followed suit, taking advantage of the government procurement program, which guarantees prices and provides a secure market for farmers.
From a policy standpoint, India remains committed to self-sufficiency in wheat. A senior government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that there are no plans to reduce the current 40 percent import tax on wheat or to explore diplomatic procurement options that had been considered during previous years of shortfall. With improved production and procurement outcomes, officials maintain that the domestic market is well-supplied and that imports will not be necessary.
At the same time, the government has no intention of lifting the wheat export ban, despite the rebound in production. The preference is to continue building to insulate the domestic market from future shocks. Officials are cautious about replicating previous mistakes, where early export approvals led to supply disruptions and price volatility.
There is ongoing debate about the precise size of the current wheat crop. While the Ministry of Agriculture has projected a record output of 115.4 million metric tons, the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India has provided a more conservative estimate of 109.63 million metric tons. Both figures were issued before the full harvest in April. A similar discrepancy was noted last year when the government projected production at 113.29 million metric tons, but the industry later revised its estimate down to 105.85 million metric tons. Industry groups continue to express concern that overly optimistic government estimates can distort market expectations and planning.
Nevertheless, even conservative assessments support the view that wheat production has improved significantly this year. Navneet Chitlangia, president of the Roller Flour Millers Federation, acknowledged the variance in projections but maintained that output was four million metric tons higher than last year, reinforcing confidence in the domestic supply outlook.
India’s wheat revival in 2025 is the result of a confluence of favorable weather, strategic agricultural choices, and effective state intervention through procurement and policy. As the country moves forward with stable reserves and a cautious yet proactive policy stance, it has reaffirmed its ability to meet domestic food security goals while reshaping the global narrative on wheat supply and demand.
