Pakistan (Commonwealth Union)_ Discussions are underway between China and Pakistan to create a new regional alliance, which may potentially replace the long-inactive South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Pakistani media reports that these discussions have reached an advanced stage, with a major meeting recently taking place in Kunming, China. Notably, Bangladesh also took part in the meeting, sparking speculation about the prospect of a new bloc in South Asia. SAARC was created in 1985 with seven founding countries, including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives. Afghanistan joined the bloc in 2007. However, the group has been largely inactive since 2016, following a series of political tensions and security concerns among member states.
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The 19th SAARC Summit, which was scheduled to be held in Islamabad in November 2016, was called off after India pulled out. This decision came in response to the Uri terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, in which 17 Indian soldiers were killed. Following India’s departure, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Bhutan also declined to participate, reporting similar concerns. Finally, they called off the meeting, and since then, no SAARC leaders’ meeting has taken place. Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attempts to rekindle collaboration via a video chat during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, where he proposed a regional emergency fund, efforts to revive complete SAARC cooperation have stalled since then.
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According to recent reports, Pakistan and China agree that the region needs a new initiative to improve cooperation and connectivity. Additionally, other SAARC members, such as Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Afghanistan, are expected to join this proposed alliance. However, there has been no sign that India will participate in this new structure. Furthermore, officials in Bangladesh have now confirmed that the recent summit in Kunming was not intended to forge a new political alliance. They highlighted that the negotiations were exclusively between government officials and did not attempt to establish a formal alliance with China or Pakistan. Furthermore, Dhaka has denied any involvement in plans to replace SAARC or join a new regional group.
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Though speculations indicate that India may be invited to join the new group, experts say that this may not be possible owing to the rising tensions between India and Pakistan. Furthermore, the reports also emphasized differences in SAARC agendas, with India focused on regional development and Pakistan pushing for political and economic gains. For instance, the discontinuation of the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme exemplifies a breakdown in collaboration. India suspended its participation in the initiative following a terrorist incident in Pahalgam on April 22, highlighting ongoing security issues. Until now, there have been no formal statements on the formation of a new regional group. However, recent debates point to a potential shift in South Asia’s geopolitical environment.
