2026 Supply Chain Trends: Can Higher Rates Offset Declining Freight Shipments?

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The Cass Freight Index (CFI) measures overall North American freight volumes and expenditures. CFI reported that shipment counts declined 7.2% month over month (m/m) during December 2025. That reflected a 7.5% decline year over year (y/y). Freight expenditures declined 1.9% m/m and were down 1.2% y/y. (Cass Information Systems – January 26)

Meantime, according to the Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI), transportation capacity plummeted to 36.9 in December 2025. This reflects a 13.1 decline from November 2025. This is the lowest level recorded since October 2021, four years ago. This figure marked the 1st contraction since March 2022. Meanwhile, transportation pricing reached 66.7, nearly 30 points higher than capacity. This report suggested that December’s freight market was the strongest in over 3 decades (FreightWaves—January ’26).

The average price of diesel fuel in the U.S. declined for the 8th consecutive week to USD 3.459 per gallon as of 12 January ’26. This reflected a decline of 14.3% y/y (U.S. EIA – January ’26).

Standard Freight Forwarding suspended operations on 29 December 2025 and reduced its workforce. Sources revealed that the 91-year-old Teamsters-staffed carriers were planning to permanently close their doors. Sakaem Holdings acquired the carrier, which operated 14 terminals throughout the Midwest, in January 2025. It was less than a year before the eventual shutdown (FreightWaves, January ’26).

2026 Supply Chain Trends: Can Higher Rates Offset Declining Freight Shipments?

Southwestern Freight Lines formed a partnership with Fletes Mexico Carga Express. The intention was to strengthen cross-border less-than-truckload (LTL) service between the U.S. and Mexico. This collaboration provided real-time rate quoting and door-to-door shipment tracking. Also, coordinated customs clearance through associates in Laredo, Texas, besides Nuevo Laredo, Mexico (FreightWaves, January ’26)

Analysts’ sentiment about truckload recovery is becoming more positive. This is due to increased regulatory enforcement of this capacity. Shares of Knight-Swift, Schneider, and Werner have reflected increases by nearly 40% on average. This increase has occurred since the week before Thanksgiving. This period is when tender rejections and spot rates began sharp increases (FreightWaves, January ’26).

Truckload spot rates shot up 19 cents per mile in December from November. That is a 9.1% increase year over year. The average national rate, meanwhile, reached USD 2.46 per mile, which included fuel. Analysts say that February is a key month to watch. If rates remain elevated beyond January’s reverse logistics season, pricing power could shift to carriers (JOC January ’26).

A group of its current and former leaders acquired Arkansas-based USA Truck from Danish freight forwarder DSV. This includes current CEO George Henry and former CFO Zachary King. The carrier operates a fleet of 1,800 trucks with 6,000 trailers. It moves with the shift to private domestic ownership, providing additional flexibility to pursue growth (FreightWaves 2026).

Spot load posts increased 80.1% week over week (w/w) in early January ’26. This was whilst spot truck posts increased 58.1%, which tightened capacity. Van load-to-truck ratios rose 10.5% w/w and 62.5% m/m. Van spot rates declined 1.8% w/w despite being up 2.0% m/m and 1.5% y/y (DAT Freight & Analytics January ’26).

The intended spinoff of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company is on track. It is expected to be executed on June 1, 2026. Following this separation, FedEx Freight will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker symbol FDXF and will host an investor day on 8 April ’26 in New York City (FedEx January ’26).

The U.S. Postal Service may require trucking contractors to phase out nondomiciled commercial driver’s license holders who aren’t eligible to drive in the U.S. This aligns with the Department of Transportation’s crackdown on immigrant drivers. About 200,000 foreign drivers hold licenses allowing them to drive commercial vehicles. This was with a DOT audit finding many were improperly granted (FreightWaves January ’26)

Roshan Abayasekara
Roshan Abayasekara
Roshan Abayasekara Was seconded by Sri Lankan blue chip conglomerate - John Keells Holdings (JKH) to its fully owned subsidiary - Mackinnon Mackenzie Shipping (MMS) in 1995 as a Junior Executive. MMS in turn allocated me to it’s principle – P&O Containers regional office for container management in South Asia region. P&O Containers employed British representatives

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