Fragile Ceasefire, High Stakes: Jordan Warns Hormuz Disruption Could Shake Global Stability

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King Abdullah II of Jordan has welcomed the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran as an opportunity to help reduce tensions in the region, which has seen multiple incidences of missile and air strikes and diplomatic brinkmanship. King Abdullah II has reaffirmed the reliability of the Jordanian security services and re-emphasised the importance of protecting Jordan’s safe and secure life as a national security priority following a meeting with former prime ministers and other senior officials at Al Husseiniya Palace in Amman, Jordan.

King Abdullah II has also raised another crucial practical issue that has global implications, namely, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for shipping and to protect freedom of navigation pursuant to international law. This warning is significant not only for the Middle East but also has broader global implications. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), approximately 20 million barrels of oil move through the strait each day, or approximately 20% of the global daily consumption of petroleum liquids; therefore, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important maritime choke points in the world.

Abdullah is concerned about what he believes are Israeli practices on Palestinian land, the sporadic violence occurring in Lebanon, and the recent attacks on Jordan and other countries in the area that are reportedly funded by Iran; however, Jordan has helped reduce tensions among its neighbours to prevent an expanding regional conflict. He believes that if any one corridor in the region becomes unstable, that instability will spread to adjacent corridors due to their proximity to each other.

It seems that the overall message from Amman is that while there may be a cease-fire, it will take more than just an end to hostilities to achieve lasting peace. To obtain peace for all parties involved, there must be an end to all combat, and that can only be accomplished by exercising restraint, protecting civilians, adhering to international law and establishing viable political channels prior to establishing and solidifying military pressure, which could lead to further conflicts between varying parties involved. Due to the interdependent and interconnected economies in the region, which rely on shipping lanes, energy sources, and the security of all nations, calling for peace is essential for the long-term economic success and viability of the entire area.

 

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