The 2026 FIFA World Cup Group G is structured like a line of succession instead of being a free-for-all. Sports Casting’s most recent update on June 8 has Belgium’s odds at -250 for the tournament’s top betting odds. The next best odds would be Egypt at +400, Iran at +600, and New Zealand at +1800. The oddsmakers have these four (4) countries ranked according to how each qualified for the tournament that will now include 48 teams across 12 groups of four. The top two teams from each group plus the eight best third-place teams qualify for the Round of 32. In summary, while Belgium may dominate headlines, there is plenty of excitement below them as well.
It is expected that Belgium will likely dominate this group, as they are a well-established footballing nation that has been ranked 9th in the world, qualified for the tournament without losing any matches from UEFA Group J (with 5 wins and 3 draws), and have an impressive roster of players, including Kevin De Bruyne, Thibaut Courtois, Romelu Lukaku, Youri Tielemans, and many more. Opta’s computer puts Belgium with an 89.6% chance of making it through the first round and a 51.9% chance of winning the group, while the betting markets have them at roughly 71%; this puts the betting market behind what the computer says about Belgium (a rare event). With that said, Belgium suffered a group stage exit the last time they played in Qatar (2022) and have an older squad with many players who have been injured, so they are susceptible to an upset.
Egypt is the first team that has the potential to turn this group from a non-event to one that includes a great deal of drama. Mohamed Salah scored nine goals during the qualification process, yet Egypt managed to finish atop CAF Group A by going undefeated in 12 games while scoring 19 goals. This isn’t the résumé of a team merely interested in participating; it’s the record of a team that is expecting to compete. According to SportsCasting, Egypt’s more realistic goal would be to advance—rather than winning their group outright—and some sportsbooks have them listed at nearly -310 odds to reach the round of 32. With Omar Marmoush, Mostafa Mohamed, and Trezeguet presenting options to create opportunities for Salah, the outcome of Egypt’s two key matches, the June 15 opener against Belgium and the June 26 one, will likely determine Egypt’s fate.
Iran is one of the most dangerous teams in their qualification group; if any match is close at the end, it could be low-scoring, as seen in past World Cups. Iran sits at twenty-first overall in FIFA, just behind Egypt. They qualified for World Cup 2022 from Asia’s AFC Group A with a seven-win, two-loss, and one-draw record. The main striker for Iran is Mehdi Taremi, the second strikers are Sardar Azmoun (who is actually one of their more dangerous scorers if they do make the knockout stage), and Alireza Jahanbakhsh brings with him plenty of experience. In an interview with SportsCasting, it is easy to downplay Iran’s previous successes and performances at World Cups; however, Qatar demonstrated that Iran can win, as evidenced by their 2-0 victory over Wales in their first match, after which they finished third in their group, which included England and the US. Iran knows they must defeat Belgium on Sunday, June 21, to set up the crucial match against Egypt on June 26, which will decide the outcome of that entire group.
Conversely, New Zealand is viewed more as an obstacle to other contenders in Group F than as a serious contender to win the group. As per Sports Casting, Chris Wood (team captain and all-time leading scorer) provides them with a Premier League-caliber focal point, and they have the experience of the 2010 World Cup, when they managed three draws in three group matches (including against eventual World Cup champions Spain). In order to get out of their group in 2026, New Zealand will be trying to capitalize on the new format of the World Cup, where a third-place finish could be good enough to get into the knockout round if they have the required help from other results. Even if they can make it past the group stage, the odds are not in New Zealand’s favor—they will be one of the longest shots to win Group G according to the betting market, and their best chance of advancing will be for the mathematics of the tournament to create opportunities for them.
Group G’s uniqueness lies in the fact that it may not necessarily require chaos to maintain its intrigue. Belgium is expected to finish at the top of Group G; however, both Egypt and Iran have a tiny gap in quality compared to the other teams, meaning that just one game could disrupt the standings for everyone. On June 26, when the four teams play their games, two will compete in Seattle while the other two will compete in Vancouver; this arrangement eliminates the possibility of gamesmanship and allows the groups to reveal their rankings simultaneously. It is because of this reason that Group G will be entertaining, not because of a predominant favorite, but because of the struggle between the other three teams trying to achieve a rank that will allow only one to be able to make a possible chance at a victory.
