Pfizer raised its forecast for 2021 COVID-19 vaccine sales by more than 70 per cent to US$26 billion and said demand from governments around the world fighting to halt the pandemic could contribute to its substantial surge for years to come.
The company said it anticipates to file for full US approval of the vaccine in May for people over the age of 16, as it is now only authorised for emergency use. It also expects to hear soon from US regulators on expansion of the vaccine’s emergency use authorisation (EUA) for children ages 12-15.
Revenue from the vaccine – developed with German partner BioNTech – is anticipated to account for more than one third of Pfizer’s sales this year.
The forecast is made, considering the contracts committed to deliver 1.6 billion vaccine doses this year. The company hopes to sign more deals for this year and is in supply negotiations with several countries for 2022 and beyond.
“Based on what we’ve seen, we believe that a durable demand for our COVID-19 vaccine – similar to that of the flu vaccines – is a likely outcome,” Chief Executive Albert Bourla said.
The two-shot vaccine was Pfizer’s top-selling product in the first quarter. Expenses and profit from the vaccine are split 50-50 between Pfizer and BioNTech.
Given continuous infections globally and ongoing discussions with governments, Mizuho analyst Vamil Divan said the 2021 forecast could increase further and spill over to future years.
Daily vaccination rates for adults in the United States are off more than 25 per cent since hitting a peak in mid-April. Authorisation in children would extend the vaccine-eligible population by millions of people.
Pfizer said it hopes to have safety and efficacy data for children ages 2-to-11 in September, when it plans to ask for further expansion of the EUA for that age group.
The company has also filed new data with US regulators that would allow the vaccine to be stored at standard refrigerator temperatures for up to four weeks, up from five days currently.
