Pakistan (Commonwealth Union)_According to recent World Bank research, Pakistan’s annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate might fall considerably over the next 28 years due to rising climate change threats. According to the latest World Bank report, “The combined risks from the intensification of climate change and environmental degradation, unless addressed, will further aggravate Pakistan’s economic fragility; and could ultimately reduce annual GDP by 18-20% per year by 2050, based on the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.”
The report added that in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, between 6.5% and 9% of GDP would likely be lost owing to climate change, as greater floods and heatwaves diminish farm and livestock output, ruin infrastructure, drain labor productivity, and impair health. In addition, water scarcity in agriculture might cut GDP by over 4.6% per year, while air pollution could reduce GDP by 6.5% annually. With growing climate change threats, the non-agricultural consumption of water is anticipated to expand dramatically.
According to the study, under a high-growth (4.9% per year) and high-warming (3°C by 2047) scenario, water consumption is anticipated to climb by about 60%, with the highest rates of increase occurring in the domestic as well as the industrial sectors. The report noted that climate change will account for up to 15% of this demand growth. This increased demand will lead to unforeseen effects that deny water rights to regions downstream. The competition between sectors will force intersectoral compromises, most likely at the price of agriculture’s water supply.
Over the next three decades, it is estimated that 10 percent of all irrigation water will need to be repurposed to fulfill non-agricultural needs. The predicted costs of a forced re-allocation of water from agriculture to non-agricultural needs might cut GDP by 4.6% in 2047. By 2030, it is anticipated that the urban poverty rate would be half that of rural areas. By 2050, urban poverty is anticipated to decrease to 10%, but rural poverty will be between 25% and 28%.
