Bangladesh (Commonwealth Union)_ The recent upheaval in Bangladesh has put India in a delicate and challenging position. The resignation and flight of Bangladesh’s long-serving Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, amid violent anti-government protests, have ignited a regional crisis with significant strategic implications for New Delhi. As India grapples with this sudden volatility, it must navigate its diplomatic relations carefully while addressing both immediate and long-term concerns.
Also read: Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina resigns, nation faces tumultuous crossroads
The crisis unfolds
Sheikh Hasina’s departure marks a pivotal moment in Bangladesh’s political landscape. Her tenure as the world’s longest-serving female head of government was marked by substantial improvements in bilateral ties with India. From enhanced road and rail connectivity to cooperative defense arrangements, her leadership fostered a period of growth and stability in Indo-Bangladesh relations. However, PM Ms Hasina’s resignation has sparked intense political turbulence, with violent anti-government movements escalating across the country. In response to these developments, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi convened an emergency meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security to address the situation. The Indian government is keenly aware of the strategic importance of Bangladesh and the potential ramifications of the ongoing crisis. Additionally, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has also briefed MPs on the situation, indicating that India is deeply concerned about the implications for regional stability and its own national interests.
Also read: Nearly 100 dead in major anti-government protests in Bangladesh
India’s special relationship with Bangladesh
India and Bangladesh share a unique and intricate relationship, characterized by deep cultural, economic, and strategic ties. This bond was significantly strengthened during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure. The Indian government’s support for Hasina was rooted in mutual benefits, including trade facilitation, counterterrorism cooperation, and regional stability. India’s involvement in Bangladesh’s internal affairs, however, has not been without controversy. Critics argue that India’s support for Hasina’s government contributed to the erosion of democratic processes within Bangladesh. Accordingly, Ali Riaz, a Bangladeshi-American political scientist, has suggested that India’s backing of Hasina was perceived as interference in Bangladesh’s domestic politics, leading to anti-India sentiment among some Bangladeshi factions.
Can India help Bangladesh to defuse the crisis?
As the crisis unfolds, India faces a crucial question: Can it help its special ally, Bangladesh, ease the crisis and restore stability? Currently, India has described the violent protests as an internal matter of Bangladesh. This cautious stance reflects a broader strategy to avoid perceptions of interference while managing its own interests in the region. India’s options are constrained. The possibility of direct intervention is limited due to concerns about worsening relations with the new government in Dhaka and the risk of being seen as intruding. Instead, India may focus on diplomatic and strategic measures to protect its interests.
One potential avenue is engaging with Bangladesh’s military, which is expected to play a key role in the formation of an interim government. Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center suggests that India will likely seek to influence the interim government to ensure that its strategic interests are considered. Additionally, India might support free and fair elections to stabilize the situation, although it would be wary of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami, which have historically had strained relations with India.
Sheikh Hasina’s flight to India
Sheikh Hasina’s arrival in India has added another layer of complexity to the situation. After fleeing the turmoil in Dhaka, Hasina landed at Hindon Airbase in Delhi. There are reports that she might seek asylum in the UK, though the status of her application remains uncertain. Additionally, India faces a diplomatic dilemma, balancing its historical support for Hasina with the need to maintain a good relationship with any new government in Bangladesh. India’s decision to grant Hasina temporary stay reflects its historical ties with her. Moreover, the Indira Gandhi government had also previously provided refuge to Hasina’s family during the 1975 unrest in Bangladesh, further complicating the current diplomatic calculus.
Geopolitical consequences
The ongoing crisis in Bangladesh also has significant geopolitical implications. With the Awami League’s control faltering, India is closely monitoring who will take charge in Dhaka. The potential rise of parties like the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, which have historically been more critical of India, poses a risk to New Delhi’s strategic interests. Additionally, China’s growing influence in the region is a concern, as Beijing might seek to exploit the instability in Bangladesh to its advantage. Furthermore, India’s strategic focus in the Bay of Bengal and its efforts to counterbalance China’s influence make the stability of Bangladesh crucial. The recent unrest, coupled with the uncertain political future, threatens to disrupt the progress made in Indo-Bangladesh relations over the past decade.
Measures taken by India
In response to the unfolding crisis, India has taken several precautionary measures. The Border Security Force (BSF) has issued a high alert along the 4,096 km border with Bangladesh to prevent illegal crossings and manage potential refugee influxes. The Indian government has also suspended train operations and flights to and from Bangladesh, impacting trade and connectivity. Moreover, India has issued a travel advisory urging its nationals in Bangladesh to exercise extreme caution and avoid non-essential travel. This advisory reflects concerns about the safety of Indian citizens amid the escalating violence.
Looking ahead
As India navigates this complex situation, its approach will likely involve a combination of diplomatic engagement, strategic monitoring, and humanitarian measures. The Indian government is keen in maintaining its special relationship with Bangladesh while ensuring stability in the region. Additionally, the evolving political landscape in Dhaka will require careful management to address both immediate and long-term challenges. In the coming weeks, India will need to balance its support for democratic processes in Bangladesh with its strategic interests. Accordingly, the future of Indo-Bangladesh relations will depend on the new government’s approach to governance and its stance towards India. While uncertainty remains, both nations are likely to continue engaging with each other, recognizing the mutual benefits of a stable and cooperative partnership.
Why is Bangladesh important to India?
India has a special relationship with Bangladesh. Accordingly, in recent years, Bangladesh and India have entered a Golden Chapter in their relationship. As of 2021-2022, Bangladesh has become India’s largest trading partner in South Asia, while India is Bangladesh’s second-largest trading partner and its biggest export market in Asia. Geographically, Bangladesh is strategically situated between India’s West Bengal and its landlocked northeastern states. This positioning offers crucial access for these northeastern states to the rest of India and to maritime trade routes, enhancing connectivity and trade.
Additionally, the growing strategic importance of the Bay of Bengal, especially in light of China’s increasing influence in the region, has prompted India to strengthen its ties with Bay littorals to maintain its dominance. With India’s western front being more unstable, India is also focusing on strengthening relationships with its eastern neighbors to advance its Indo-Pacific goals. In both contexts, Bangladesh, as India’s immediate neighbor to the north of the Bay of Bengal, holds significant strategic value.
Conclusion
India faces a significant challenge with the geopolitical consequences of the turmoil in Dhaka. As Bangladesh drifts away from the Awami League’s control, India is closely monitoring who will emerge as the new leader. Furthermore, India faces a critical moment in its relations with Bangladesh. The unfolding crisis presents challenges but also opportunities for New Delhi to reaffirm its commitment to regional stability and strategic partnerships. Overall, how India responds to the crisis will shape the future dynamics of its relationship with its special ally and the broader geopolitical landscape in South Asia.
