Commonwealth—A recently released Lancet report estimates cancer rates and mortality rates to skyrocket by 2050 worldwide, and Canada is no exception. The researchers estimate global cases of cancer will rise from 18.5 million in 2023 to 30.5 million in 2050, a 65 percent increase. Death will rise even faster, from 10.4 million in 2023 to 18.6 million in 2050, a 75 percent increase from 2024.
The high rise is not necessarily because cancer is becoming more virulent. It’s actually a matter of demographic change. More economically advanced nations such as Canada are seeing people live longer and populations grow, and aging just so happens to be one of the biggest factors contributing to cancer development. “Canadians are seeing increasing rates of cancer not because cancer is getting bigger, but because Canadians are living longer,” says Dr. Ali Mokdad, University of Washington professor of health metrics sciences and the senior author on the study.
When scientists controlled for age, they saw positive trends. From 1990 through 2023, cancer incidence declined 9 percent per 100,000 population, and cancer mortality rates declined 29 percent. A national health care system and screening programs have allowed physicians to diagnose cancer earlier and improve survival. But the sheer number of diagnoses continues to increase, and so do the hospital, clinic, and caregiver workloads.
Lung and tracheal cancer, stomach cancer, and colorectal cancer are the most lethal cancers worldwide, and they will rise even more in 2050. Tobacco is still the most preventable cause of cancer death at 21 percent. Adding other lifestyle risk factors like alcohol consumption, nutrition, and pollution, they estimate that as much as 42 percent of cancer deaths could be prevented.
Canada’s robust health care system is already straining to meet its expanding needs. Toronto‘s Princess Margaret Cancer Care Network Director Dr. Keith Stewart indicates his hospital lacks chemotherapy treatment chairs and inpatient beds for complicated procedures such as bone marrow transplants. “We are beginning to feel it,” he indicates, implying that the system is yet to catch up with the surge in patients as individuals age and more live with cancer.
Preparation on multiple fronts is made for this wave:
Improve screening programs. Expanding access to breast, cervical, colon, and lung cancer screening tests can identify cancer at an early stage when it is most curable.
Improve health infrastructure. There will be added demands for more treatment rooms, inpatient beds, and high-tech equipment to treat more patients.
Build the workforce. Canada will need to train and retain oncologists, nurses, and technicians in larger numbers to avoid shortages.
Prevent as much as possible. Public smoking bans, significant reductions in unhealthy eating, and anti-binge drinking campaigns can help prevent cancers and save money.
Invest in survivorship care and research. Ongoing innovation with precision medicine and tracking those survivors for a lifetime will enable patients to live healthier and longer.
Without planning, there are human as well as economic costs. Late-diagnosed cancers are more costly to treat and more likely to result in death. Without investment and planning, Canadians could have longer wait times, increased costs, and avoidable deaths.
The favorable news is that Canada has a strong foundation to build on: universal care, falling age-adjusted mortality rates, and a track record of successful screening programs. The coming decades will test that system. Acting now through prevention, hospital modernization, and the recruitment of more specialists can set Canada on course to conquer cancer in 2050 and beyond.
