Canada’s demographic scene has altered significantly since the 2022 version of Statistics Canada’s population forecasts. Population growth increased due to many settlers arriving, fertility touched a record low in 2022, and life expectancy reduced for three consecutive years (2020 to 2022). Today, Statistics Canada released new population forecasts for Canada (2023 to 2073) and the provinces and regions (2023 to 2048). These forecasts include numerous scenarios, considering current trends and expert opinions. Canada’s populace, projected at 40.1 million in 2023, will continue to grow conferring to various scenarios, reaching between 47.1 million and 87.2 million by 2073. The medium-growth situation (M1) projects a population of 62.8 million by 2073.
The yearly population growth rate, which has been around 1.12 percent over the last 3 decades, will slowly decrease to 0.79 percent by 2072/2073 in the medium-growth situation. In contrast, the high-growth scenario forecasts an increase of 1.59 percent, while the low-growth scenario estimates a decrease of 0.07 percent. Migratory upsurge will be the principal driver of population growth in all situations, enduring a trend since the 1990s. Natural increase—births minus deaths—will show a minor role due to the increasing number of deaths from an elderly population and low fertility rates, similar to tendencies in other countries. The number of individuals aged 65 and older will increase from 18.9% in 2023 to between 21.9% (slow-aging scenario) and 32.3% (fast-aging scenario) by 2073. Nevertheless, this growth will reduce after 2030, when all baby boomers will have turned 65.
The part of children (aged 0 to 14) has significantly reduced since 1962, when it was 34.0%. Projected at 15.4% in 2023, this share will endure to deteriorate in most forecast scenarios, excluding the slow-aging and high-growth scenarios. The number of individuals aged 85 and older will rise rapidly, particularly between 2031 and 2050, as the baby-boom cohort reaches this age cluster, which necessitates more healthcare and services. The population aged 85 and older will rise from 896,600 in 2023 to between 3.3 million (low-growth situation) and 4.3 million (high-growth situation) by 2073. The regular age of Canadians will increase from 41.6 years in 2023 to between 42.6 years (slow-aging situation) and 50.1 years (fast-aging situation) by 2073.
If present trends continue, the population share of provinces east of Ontario will reduce in all forecast scenarios. Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Quebec will experience their population reduction as a share of Canada’s total population between 2023 and 2048. In comparison, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia will see an upsurge. Ontario and Quebec will remain the most crowded provinces over the next 25 years. The yearly population development rate will vary among provinces and territories, with some possibly seeing population reductions. For example, in the low-growth situation, Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories will experience population drops between 2023 and 2048. Population aging will upsurge the share of older adults (aged 65 and older) in all provinces and regions. The number of people aged 85 and older will also increase quickly in the coming years.
