As excessive heat experienced by many Caribbean islands for the last couple of months, with no end in sight, especially in August and September, Excessive heat can be expected according to the Barbados -base Caribbean climate outlook forum (cariCOF) in its heat outlook for May to October 2023.
The heat outlook forecast informed May to July, the first half of the heating season in the Caribbean, may well be hotter than usual for most.
Making the peak of the season, intense night and daytime heat is to be expected in much of the Caribbean from August to October.
Possibly intense and frequent heat stress in a vulnerable population and sensitive livestock may be experienced due to excessive temperature and high humidity, from May through September. Cooling requirements are expected to increase sharply towards August and September.
Increased Vulnerability in individuals with chronic illness, children, pregnant women, and the elderly. Strong increase in mild heat symptoms. An increase in heart-related illnesses, fainting, hospitalization, and health services may be experienced.
There is a possibility of a potential increase in biological risks such as Aedes Mosquito–borne diseases, Gastrointestinal disease.
In St Maarten, the meteorological department in its seasonal outlook informs, that models are indicating that rainfalls for the season May – July 2023, are likely to be in the normal range in ST Maarten and the rest of the Caribbean, with ranges of 167mm – 295mm / 7 – 12 inches with 28 to 36 wet days.
Most forecast models indicate that EL Nino will start in May to July 2023 this season. There is a possibility that EL Nino will continue through early 2024. This wet season may be drier than usual in the Caribbean, in view of the development of EL Nino.
Short–term drought is indicated in Barbados, Belize, Southeast Cuba, USVI, Martinique, and ST Vincent, whereas long-term drought is experienced in other areas across the Caribbean.
However, by the end of July, there Is no indication of drought concern. Although drought conditions will continue in ST Maarten through May.
