The cost of war risk insurance for ships sailing through the Black Sea has reflected an increase from about 0.25 to 0.3% of the ship’s value last month in November to between 0.5 and 0.75% a month later in December 2025.
Insurance prices for vessels operating in the Black Sea have nearly tripled over the past month compared to the levels observed in November 2025. Brokers in the insurance industry believe that the recent increases could continue this trend.
Drone attacks from Ukraine have targeted both Russian ships and ports in the region.
The cost of war risk insurance for ships sailing through the Black Sea is considered a critical trade zone for commodities such as grain & crude oil. Ukrainian special forces executed attacks on Russia’s Novorossiysk port and its infrastructure, leading to the price increase.
War risk insurance prices have risen from about 0.25 to 0.3% of the vessels’ values, as displayed a month back in November, to reflect 0.5 to 0.75% only a month later this week. Marcus Baker, the head of marine & cargo at broker Marsh, revealed this during an interview with the Financial Times. Baker expressed his opinion that the price increase could potentially reach 250%.
A commodities insurance broker at an alternate firm believed that insurance prices for Marsh’s clients had increased by more than 200%.
Baker added that increases have been the steepest in Russian areas of the Black Sea. This area of Russia is bordered by other neighbouring countries such as Ukraine, Georgia & Turkey. Baker stated that they expected Russia to intensify its incursions into Ukraine, potentially leading to additional increases in that region.
Ukraine has recently targeted Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of oil tankers, which Moscow has been using to evade Western sanctions. This has been since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, in 2022.
Ukraine’s drones hit two sanctioned tankers, namely, Kairos and Virat. This attack was off Turkey’s Black Sea coast last Friday, 5 December, likely meant as part of a stepped-up campaign by Ukraine to squeeze Moscow. The tanker, Midvolga 2, also came under Ukrainian attack, as shared by Turkey’s maritime authority on Tuesday, 2 December. In response, Kyiv disclosed that Ukraine had nothing to do with the cited incident.
These strikes come as the US presses on in its efforts to forge a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
The commodities insurance broker said that prices have risen most sharply for Russian-linked tankers. Russian-linked bulk vessels, which typically transport bulk cargo like grain, followed suit.
One of the maritime security experts shared, preferring to remain anonymous, that the strikes had rattled tanker owners and that vessels conducting legitimate trade were also being targeted.
For instance, four explosions off the coast of Senegal last week damaged a Turkish-owned oil tanker. Following this attack, Istanbul-based owner Besiktas Shipping said that it would be halting all Russia-related voyages.
Baker believed that this attack may have been a Ukrainian effort to undermine tanker owners trading with Russia. However, Baker also added that Ukrainian involvement in the Senegal incident had not been confirmed.
Meantime, many had witnessed thick smoke rising after a fire on board the tanker Kairos in the Black Sea. This was when it was struck 28 miles off the Turkish coastline last Friday, 5 December.
Baker’s claimed to have added that everyone would have been surprised to see Senegal become a location for heightened war risk. Baker went on to add that it could mean that there’s a general increase in war risk insurance rates, likely moving beyond the Black Sea as this type of attack was becoming a little more random.
