Tropical Storm Ernesto unleashed its fury on the Caribbean overnight Tuesday, continuing its relentless path just days after Tropical Storm Debby swept along the U.S. East Coast. With Ernesto’s winds nearing hurricane strength, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has warned of its potential to escalate into a major hurricane within a couple of days.
As of 2 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Ernesto’s maximum sustained winds were clocked at 70 mph, just short of the 74 mph threshold required to classify it as a hurricane. The storm was churning northwest at 16 mph, positioned about 80 miles northwest of St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and 40 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico.
In anticipation of Ernesto’s impact, President Biden approved an emergency declaration for Puerto Rico on Tuesday night. The NHC’s latest forecast indicates that Ernesto will traverse north of Puerto Rico throughout the day before shifting into the western Atlantic later this week. By Friday, the storm is expected to approach Bermuda, prompting heightened vigilance.
Currently, a hurricane watch is in effect for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra, while a tropical storm warning is active for these same areas, including Puerto Rico. Ernesto is projected to bring significant rainfall, with 4 to 6 inches expected over the Virgin Islands and up to 10 inches over southeastern Puerto Rico. Additionally, storm surge levels could rise up to 3 feet, generating “large and destructive waves” along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Despite the storm’s intensity, the NHC reassured that the U.S. mainland remains largely outside the risk zone for direct impacts. However, heightened rip currents and larger waves are anticipated along the eastern seaboard.
Ernesto is the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which has already demonstrated its extraordinary nature. The season kicked off with Beryl achieving record strength amidst unusually high Gulf of Mexico temperatures. NOAA’s forecast for the season is notably above average, predicting between 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes. Typically, the fifth-named storm doesn’t materialize until August 22, underscoring the intensity of this year’s storm activity.
