Fragile Peace: Israel and Hezbollah Edge Closer to Historic Ceasefire

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Global (Commonwealth Union)

Israeli and U.S. officials have reported significant progress toward a proposed 60-day ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. The Israeli cabinet is expected to meet on Tuesday to discuss the deal. The United States and France are mediating the agreement, which aims to end the intense conflict that erupted in October 2023.

The ceasefire framework includes Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the removal of Hezbollah forces from the area, with a Western diplomat disclosing plans to increase the Lebanese Army’s presence in the region to ensure stability. The U.S., chairing a five-nation oversight committee with France as a member, has resolved a key sticking point about who would monitor the truce.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed support for the deal “in principle,” while Lebanese Deputy Parliament Speaker Elias Bou Saab has stated that “no serious obstacles” remain. However, a major point of contention has been Israel’s insistence on maintaining the right to re-enter southern Lebanon if Hezbollah re-establishes itself south of the Litani River or threatens Israeli security. This demand has been rejected by both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, but U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein has emphasized the time-sensitive nature of the agreement.

The deal is being finalized against the backdrop of escalating violence, as Hezbollah launched around 250 projectiles into Israel on Sunday, most of which were intercepted. Israeli airstrikes targeted suspected Hezbollah positions in Beirut and other areas, killing at least 29 people, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Hostilities continued on Monday, with Israeli strikes killing 31 more in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Hezbollah’s attacks on northern and central Israel injured several people and damaged buildings near Tel Aviv, Israeli police reported.

Since October 2023, the conflict has claimed over 3,750 lives in Lebanon and displaced more than one million people. Israel launched its offensive in response to Hezbollah’s rocket attacks in support of Hamas in Gaza, with the stated goal of eliminating the militia’s infrastructure and allowing the return of approximately 60,000 Israelis displaced by Hezbollah’s attacks on northern communities.

Domestically, the ceasefire faces opposition from hardline Israeli officials. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has criticized the agreement, calling it “a grave mistake” and arguing that Israel should capitalize on Hezbollah’s current weakness to destroy the group entirely.

Lebanese authorities have insisted that any ceasefire must align with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war. The resolution calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah in areas between the Blue Line—the de facto border—and the Litani River, as well as an end to Israeli violations such as military overflights.

Despite these challenges, U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby expressed his cautious optimism, stating that negotiations are “close” but not finalized. The proposed truce, if implemented, would mark a significant step toward de-escalation in a region that has seen unrelenting violence and humanitarian devastation over the past year.

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