Historic Agreement Between Israel and Hezbollah—What Lies Ahead for the Region?

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Israel and Hezbollah have announced a historic ceasefire, effectively ending 13 months of conflict along the Lebanese-Israeli border. US President Joe Biden, who brokered the agreement, confirmed that hostilities would cease on Wednesday and described the development as aiming for a “permanent cessation of hostilities.”

The conflict, Lebanon’s deadliest in decades, according to local officials, has claimed the lives of over 3,823 people and displaced one million. The fighting initially erupted in October 2023 with Hezbollah launching rockets into Israel in response to Hamas’ attack on southern Israel, killing approximately 1,200 people. Tensions then escalated further in September 2024 when Israel launched a ground offensive in southern Lebanon.

As per the terms of the ceasefire, Israeli forces will gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon over a period of 60 days, allowing Lebanese government forces to regain control of Hezbollah-held areas. The agreement also requires Hezbollah fighters and their weaponry to retreat beyond the Litani River, a boundary established following the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that Israel retains the right to respond to any violations of the agreement, stating that if Hezbollah were to violate the agreement by arming itself or rebuilding terrorist infrastructure near the border, they would attack in response. Netanyahu also highlighted that ending the conflict in Lebanon would allow Israel to focus on its ongoing war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati welcomed the ceasefire as a critical step toward restoring stability, urging Israel to fully comply with the deal and adhere to past UN resolutions.

The ceasefire has been a joint effort between the US and France, with both nations committing to monitor its implementation. President Biden pledged that the US would not deploy any troops for this purpose.

The war has left Lebanon economically devastated, with the World Bank estimating a loss of $8.5 billion. Hezbollah, severely weakened by the conflict, has lost significant leadership and infrastructure. The group’s future influence in Lebanon, where it holds political and social power, remains uncertain.

The ceasefire provides hope for recovery and stability in the region, but the challenges ahead are considerable, with both nations now facing the daunting task of rebuilding and addressing the underlying tensions that led to the conflict.

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