Africa ( Commonwealth Union) _ South Africa is currently facing a severe electricity crisis characterized by enforced power cuts that have worsened over the years, with electricity being unavailable for up to 10 hours a day. The main cause of this crisis is the frequent breakdowns at the country’s aging coal power plants, which account for 74% of its generating capacity.
While improving the performance and reliability of existing coal plants may seem like a viable solution, it is a complex and costly undertaking. Many of the plants would require extensive overhauls, which would be time-consuming and prohibitively expensive.
To overcome the current deficit, South Africa estimates that it needs around 6,000MW of additional capacity. However, it is predicted that it could take up to five years to completely eradicate this shortfall, although some partial improvement should be felt by the end of 2024.
Although the construction of new coal, nuclear, or gas plants is being considered for future power supply enhancement, these projects typically require around 10 years to complete. Therefore, they will not have a significant impact in the short to medium term.
The largest power stations in South Africa, Kusile and Medupi, have experienced numerous challenges during their construction, including cost overruns and delays. Additionally, operational issues such as explosions and structural failures have further hindered their performance. The Koeberg nuclear power plant, which has been contributing 5% of the country’s electricity, also requires upgrades and replacements to extend its lifespan. However, these operations have faced delays and setbacks.
To address the immediate power crisis, the government awarded bids for emergency power supply, with a significant portion allocated to a company called Karpowership. However, this decision has faced criticism due to concerns about the long-term implications of relying on temporary emergency solutions.
Renewable energy initiatives, such as solar and wind power, are being pursued through the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme. While these sources have their limitations due to intermittency, progress is being made in establishing new solar and wind farms. However, achieving the necessary capacity to meet the 6,000MW shortfall would require substantial efforts and time due to logistical and skill-related challenges.
Small-scale solar power installations, including municipal and private initiatives, have shown promising growth, but their impact on the national shortfall is still moderate. Import bottlenecks and skills shortages continue to hinder the expansion of these initiatives. Considering the current state of affairs, any measures or projects initiated now or in progress are unlikely to have a significant impact this year. It is projected that by the end of 2024, there could be a notable decrease in the power shortage if repairs at Kusile are completed as expected and renewable energy initiatives come online. However, it is estimated that it could take up to five years to fully eliminate power cuts if the planned infusion of solar and wind capacity proceeds as intended.
