Africa (Commonwealth Union) _ The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2025 to 3.0%, down from the previous estimate of 3.4% in 2024. This revision, disclosed in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report released during the Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., attributes the decline to weakening oil output and escalating global trade conflicts.
According to the report, low-income, commodity-exporting nations like Nigeria are now facing increasing challenges. Falling global demand is expected to squeeze revenues, especially for oil-exporting countries. “Exporters are set to see weakening oil supply and declining revenues, which will affect fiscal space,” the IMF stated, adding that current market volatility and asset revaluation are further tightening these countries’ economic conditions.
The IMF also expressed concern over growing global trade restrictions. Recent aggressive tariff hikes by the United States are fueling global uncertainty, followed by retaliatory responses from other nations. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s Chief Economist, noted that “Effective tariff rates are now at levels not seen in a century,” describing the evolving trade landscape as a reset of the global economic order that’s been in place for 80 years.
This shift is having a pronounced effect on global economic growth. For 2025, the IMF expects emerging markets and developing economies to grow by 3.7%, with a slight rise to 3.9% in 2026. Countries like China, which are deeply integrated into the global trade system, have seen notable downward revisions to their growth outlooks.
Sub-Saharan Africa is also projected to experience a further slowdown in regional growth, with the IMF citing rising downside risks and potential spillover effects if a U.S. recession materializes, particularly for countries with strong trade or financial links to the American economy.
On inflation, the global outlook remains mixed. The IMF now expects inflation to ease more gradually than earlier thought. Headline inflation is forecast at 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026. While advanced economies face upward revisions in inflation projections, emerging markets are expected to see slightly lower inflation figures than previously estimated.
The IMF cautioned that shifting global policy priorities and heightened unpredictability are complicating economic forecasting. “The unfolding of these trade measures is a significant negative shock to global growth,” the Fund concluded.
