Commonwealth _ The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) has issued a sobering forecast for the year 2024, indicating that the region is likely to experience a series of climate extremes. In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, CariCOF highlights several key factors contributing to this prediction.
One significant factor is the waning El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño refers to the warming of the ocean surface, particularly in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon often leads to changes in weather patterns worldwide, including in the Caribbean. As the El Niño event diminishes, it can contribute to increased temperatures and altered precipitation patterns in the region.
The anticipation of record-warm temperatures in the Tropical North Atlantic is a cause for concern as it can have far-reaching implications for the Caribbean region. Elevated sea surface temperatures in this area catalyze atmospheric changes, potentially intensifying weather phenomena, particularly hurricanes and tropical storms. These storms, fueled by warmer ocean waters, pose a significant threat to the Caribbean’s coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems.
In response to these climatic conditions, the Caribbean is bracing itself for an intense Heat Season characterized by recurrent heatwaves. These prolonged periods of extreme heat can have detrimental effects on human health, agriculture, and energy consumption. Moreover, the early onset of an intense wet season is expected, heralding increased shower intensity and frequency. This heightened precipitation brings with it the looming threat of flooding, flash floods, and other associated hazards, particularly in low-lying and flood-prone areas.
The combination of these factors creates a challenging outlook for the Caribbean, necessitating proactive measures to enhance resilience and adaptation strategies. Governments, communities, and stakeholders must prioritize disaster preparedness, invest in infrastructure that can withstand extreme weather events, and implement sustainable land-use practices to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Furthermore, regional collaboration and information sharing through forums like the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) are essential for fostering a coordinated response to the looming climate extremes.
One uncertainty mentioned by CariCOF is the frequency of dry, dust-laden air from the Sahara Desert, known as the Saharan Air Layer, reaching the Caribbean. If these incursions are frequent, they could disrupt normal weather patterns, leading to erratic shower activity, dry spells, and exacerbating ongoing drought conditions.
Speaking of drought, CariCOF reports that as of March 1, 2024, moderate to severe short-term drought has already developed in several Caribbean regions, including French Guiana, Grenada, Guyana, Martinique, Puerto Rico, Suriname, and Tobago. Long-term drought has also been observed in southern Belize, northern Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, southern Puerto Rico, St. Vincent, eastern and northern Suriname, Trinidad, and Tobago.
Looking ahead, the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) issues a stark warning regarding the persistence and exacerbation of long-term drought conditions across various parts of the Caribbean. Specifically, areas such as southern French Guiana, southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, parts of Central Cuba, and northern Guyana are identified as vulnerable to worsening drought impacts.
These prolonged drought conditions present severe challenges for agriculture, water supply, and overall ecosystem health throughout the region. Agricultural sectors reliant on consistent rainfall face diminished crop yields and increased susceptibility to crop failures. The scarcity of water resources strains local economies and exacerbates food insecurity, posing significant challenges for communities dependent on agriculture for livelihoods.
The outlook for the Caribbean in 2024 suggests a challenging year ahead, with climate extremes including heatwaves, intense rainfall, flooding, and the potential for prolonged drought. Adaptation and resilience measures will be crucial for communities and governments to mitigate the impacts of these extreme weather events.
