In Inchcape’s Global Shipping Report, Daniel Mueller, Senior Analyst at global risk management company Ambrey, outlines the enduring maritime security (marsec) threats in key hotspots around the world in the 3rd quarter. Rebecca Egan, Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst at Ambrey, spotlights West Africa as the region transitions into the drier season. Meantime, Ambrey’s
Asia Maritime Security Analyst, Dr. Fang Yang, focusses on Malaysia and tightening enforcement against unauthorised anchoring.
On the Black Sea & the Baltic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has expanded from the Black Sea into the Baltic. As such, warfare has evolved into covert hybrid operations, involving intelligence & sabotage. This situation draws commercial shipping ever deeper into the operational and political crossfire.
In the Black Sea, sea mines remain a primary threat. Besides this, unexploded explosives have been found along the coasts of Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey. There were discoveries of unmanned surface vessels in Turkish waters.
Limpet mine attacks targeting vessels linked to Russian hydrocarbon exports, which have extended into the Baltic. This has secondary effects that reach the Mediterranean.
Both sides continue to strike ports & logistics infrastructure. Ukraine continues to target Russian assets, while Russia maintains pressure on Ukrainian facilities. Electronic warfare that includes GPS and AIS signal denial occurs with both shipborne and shore-based systems, which has been intensifying across both areas.
One growing concern is the militarisation of merchant vessels. This is due to multiple cases of ships allegedly developing or supporting unmanned systems. Such activity has led to arrests & detentions in Germany, Sweden & Norway.
In the Mediterranean, Ambrey data indicate a sharp increase in merchant vessel involvement in search & rescue (SAR). This is besides humanitarian operations across the Med, with over 870 cases recorded so far in 2025. While there have been numerous mass-casualty incidents, merchant crews have reflected exceptional professionalism & courage.
New migration routes are emerging for Crete. This increase occurs alongside a rise in crossings from Algeria to Spain, as well as to the Balearic Islands. Incidents have included small-arms fire against the NGO vessel Mediterranea SOS, which recorded over 100 rounds, besides a fatal attack on a fishing vessel carrying migrants.
Beyond SAR operations, the region has seen wider maritime security incidents, including an aerial drone attack on the Freedom Flotilla bound for Gaza. There has also been a surge in industrial action & activism. This is for refusals to handle perceived dual-use cargoes for Israel, labour disputes and environmental protests targeting vessels linked to ecological damage.
Despite the region’s previous stability, these developments collectively signal a significant decline in the maritime sector. We expect migration pressures and maritime risks to intensify as economic and political instability spread from Sub-Saharan Africa & Sudan. In the meantime, armed clashes in Libya continue to disrupt exports and port operations, adding further volatility to the Mediterranean maritime theatre.
Focusing on the Middle East—the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden—these two main actors tend to directly impact shipping in the region. This is primarily due to the actions of the Houthis in Yemen, as well as those of Israel. Since June 2025, Ambrey has recorded 112 marsec incidents. These include 31 linked to Houthi activity.
The Houthis continue to sustain attacks on both Israel & commercial vessels. Throughout 2025, the Houthi target profile has remained largely consistent. They have been mainly targeting ships with Israeli ownership, operations, or trade links. Thus far, they have struck five vessels, causing damage to three of them. Besides this, two others sank, resulting in five deaths and one injury.
In response, Israel launched targeted strikes in August against the Houthis’ political & military leadership. Airstrikes on Houthi-controlled ports like Hodeidah followed this in September.
Although the frequency of attacks may have declined, lethality has reflected an increase. Ambrey assesses the present threat as more manageable, given that Houthi’s intent has become narrower and more predictable.
