Is the AUKUS Pact on Shaky Ground? Major Review Sparks Regional Anxiety

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The U.S. administration is currently reviewing the future of the AUKUS security pact, an important agreement aimed at strengthening defense against China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Reports suggest the Pentagon is assessing the deal to see if it fits with the president’s “America First” policy goals. The decision has raised concerns in Australia, as the country views the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines as crucial to its long-term defense plan and has already invested heavily in the necessary industrial base and training programs.

News of the Pentagon’s review was prominent in Australian media recently, highlighting the importance of the AUKUS agreement to Canberra‘s defense strategy. The previous U.S. administration originally established this pact with Australia and the United Kingdom in 2021. However, the current U.S. leadership seems to be taking a more skeptical approach, favoring allies taking on more responsibility for their defense spending. In a recent discussion, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth urged his Australian counterpart to raise defense spending to 3.5 percent of its GDP, similar to demands made of European allies.

A Pentagon official mentioned on Wednesday that the administration wants to make sure the AUKUS agreement meets “common-sense, America First criteria.” These criteria likely include ensuring U.S. forces are well-prepared, that allies share defense costs fairly, and that the domestic defense supply chain meets national needs. The Financial Times first reported on this important development. Despite the review, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles confirmed that both Australia and the United Kingdom had been informed, and all three countries remain committed to the deal. In a radio interview with ABC Melbourne on Thursday, Mr. Marles expressed calmness, stating, “We’ve been aware of this for some time. We welcome it. It’s something which is perfectly natural for an incoming administration to do.”

For Australia, acquiring nuclear submarines is essential for its security in a region that is increasingly influenced by China’s military expansion. These submarines, only used by a few nations, have a much greater range and stealth than conventional submarines. Their range allows the Royal Australian Navy to operate over vast distances. While the AUKUS pact is strategically important for the military positions of the United States and the United Kingdom, Australia has invested the most in its success.

Under the agreement, Australia will receive used Virginia-class nuclear submarines from the United States in the 2030s while also developing its own ability to build submarines using a British design. However, there are concerns in both Washington and Canberra about whether the U.S. can quickly produce enough new submarines to replace its fleet and supply older models to Australia. In January, Australia paid $500 million to the United States, marking the first installment of what is expected to be a $3 billion investment to support the U.S. submarine industry. Elbridge Colby, the former U.S. under secretary of defense for policy, expressed doubts about the practical viability of the AUKUS deal during his Senate confirmation hearing in March. He is now reportedly overseeing the Pentagon’s review of the pact. Even before the Pentagon’s review was announced, concerns had been growing in Australia about the reliability of its alliance with the United States, especially given the current administration’s past interactions with allies.

 

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