(Commonwealth_India) The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that India will be a significant factor in determining the world’s future oil needs. India, the third-largest importer of oil worldwide, is predicted to contribute more to the growth of oil demand in the coming years than any other nation. By 2030, India’s oil consumption is expected to rise by a substantial 1 million barrels per day, according to the IEA. The nation’s robust economic momentum is driving this demand spike, with GDP projected to expand at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent over this period.
By 2030, India’s consumption of crude oil, which is processed into essential fuels like gasoline and diesel, is expected to increase from 5.64 million barrels per day in 2024 to 6.66 million barrels per day. But this rising demand coincides with a drop in domestic oil production. Meanwhile, over 95% of India’s oil requirements are presently met by imports, and energy safety and global supply dynamics are critical issues for the country’s long-term preparation.
Large economies exhibit a wide range of attitudes toward oil consumption. The forecast predicts that oil demand in the United States, the world’s main consumer, will peak in 2025 at 20.47 million barrels per day. It is expected that U.S. demand will gradually weaken, reaching about 20.01 million barrels per day by 2030. In a similar manner, it is projected that China, which has long been a main source of energy demand, will reach its peak oil usage in 2027, when it will consume 16.95 million barrels per day. China’s demand will peak and then start a slow decline, concluding the decade at 16.66 million barrels per day, which is approximately the same as in 2024.
In contrast, India’s oil demand trajectory shows no signs of slowing. The IEA emphasizes that the country is expected to remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy in 2025 for the fourth consecutive year. India is also on track to surpass Japan and become the fourth-largest economy in the world, which will mark an important change in global economic rankings.
While various petroleum products will contribute to this rise in demand, transport fuels are anticipated to lead the growth, making India something of a global outlier. Projected growth for jet fuel and kerosene will be the fastest, with an annual increase of nearly 6 percent.
Although it is currently starting from a relatively low base, the demand for jet fuel is expected to benefit from projected population growth of 5 percent between 2025 and 2030 and a rapidly expanding middle class. This group’s increased spending on travel, leisure, and other indulgences, along with international travel, will result in higher aviation fuel consumption.
With an anticipated 4% yearly growth, gasoline, or petrol, is also anticipated to expand quickly. Due to increased vehicle ownership and increased mobility in both urban and rural areas, this sector still has a lot of room to grow.
